A new multi-institutional study of the temporary slowdown in the global average surface temperature warming trend observed between 1998 and 2013 concludes the phenomenon represented a redistribution of energy within the Earth system, with Earth’s ocean absorbing the extra heat.

The phenomenon was referred to by some as the “global warming hiatus.” Global average surface temperature, measured by satellites and direct observations, is considered a key indicator of climate change.

In a paper published Tuesday in Earth’s Future, a journal of the American Geophysical Union, lead author Xiao-Hai Yan of the University of Delaware, Newark, along with scientists from NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena and several other institutions, discuss new understanding of the phenomenon.

The paper grew out of a special U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability Program (CLIVAR) panel session at the 2015 American Geophysical Union fall meeting.

“The hiatus period gives scientists an opportunity to understand uncertainties in how climate systems are measured, as well as to fill in the gap in what scientists know,” said Yan.

“NASA’s examination of ocean observations has provided its own unique contribution to our knowledge of decadal climate trends and global warming,” said study co-author Veronica Nieves of JPL and the University of California, Los Angeles. “Scientists have more confidence now that Earth’s ocean has continued to warm continuously through time. But the rate of global surface warming can fluctuate due to natural variations in the climate system over periods of a decade or so.”

Where’s the missing heat?

While Yan said it’s difficult to reach complete consensus on such a complex topic, a thorough review of the literature and much discussion and debate revealed a number of key points on which these leading scientists concur:

• From 1998 to 2013, the rate of global mean surface warming slowed, which some call the “global warming hiatus.”

• Natural variability plays a large role in the rate of global mean surface warming on decadal time scales.

• Improved understanding of how the ocean distributes and redistributes heat will help the scientific community better monitor Earth’s energy budget. Earth’s energy budget is a complex calculation of how much energy enters our climate system from the sun and what happens to it: how much is stored by the land, ocean or atmosphere.

“To better monitor Earth’s energy budget and its consequences, the ocean is most important to consider because the amount of heat it can store is extremely large when compared to the land or atmospheric capacity,” said Yan.

According to the paper, “arguably, ocean heat content – from the surface to the seafloor – might be a more appropriate measure of how much our planet is warming.”

Charting future research

In the near term, the researchers hope this paper will lay the foundation for future research in the global change field.

To begin, they suggest the climate community replace the term “global warming hiatus” with “global surface warming slowdown” to eliminate confusion.

“This terminology more accurately describes the slowdown in global mean surface temperature rise in the late 20th century,” Yan said.

The scientists also called for continued support of current and future technologies for ocean monitoring to reduce observation errors in sea surface temperature and ocean heat content.

This includes maintaining Argo, the main system for monitoring ocean heat content, and the development of Deep Argo to monitor the lower half of the ocean; the use of ship-based subsurface ocean temperature monitoring programs; advancements in robotic technologies such as autonomous underwater vehicles to monitor waters adjacent to land (like islands or coastal regions); and further development of real- or near-real-time deep ocean remote sensing methods.

Yan’s research group reported in a 2015 paper that some coastal oceans (e.g., U.S. East Coast, China Coast) responded faster to the recent global surface warming rate change than the global ocean.

“Although these regions represent only a fraction of the ocean volume, the changing rate of ocean heat content is faster here, and real-time data and more research are needed to quantify and understand what is happening,” Yan said.

Variability and heat sequestration over specific regions (e.g., Pacific, Atlantic, Indian, Southern Oceans, etc.) require further investigation, the authors conclude.

However, there is broad agreement among the scientists and in the literature that the slowdown in the global mean surface temperature increase from 1998 to 2013 was due to increased uptake of heat energy by the global ocean.

This research was funded by NASA, the National Science Foundation and NOAA. Other participating institutions include the NOAA, Silver Spring, Maryland; the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, Colorado; Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California; and the University of Washington, Seattle.

AccuWeather reports a stormy pattern persisting into Thanksgiving will have impact on the busiest cross-country travel week of the year.

More people travel farther during the week of Thanksgiving than any other week of the year, according to the American Automobile Association, or AAA.

AAA is projecting that 48.7 million Americans will travel 50 miles or more from home Wednesday, Nov. 23, to Sunday, Nov. 27, which will be the greatest volume since 2007, just prior to the Great Recession.

Those hitting the highways or airports early to beat the rush may still encounter some trouble from Mother Nature late this week and this weekend.

Tranquil weather comes to an end this week

After pummeling the northern Plains with a snowstorm and blizzard conditions, a storm will reorganize and affect the Great Lakes and Northeast this weekend, according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Henry Margusity.

Initially, rain and warmth will sweep eastward.

“However, the first true blast of much colder air could bring the first snowfall of the season from the Great Lakes to the central Appalachians during Saturday night and into Sunday,” Margusity said.

Motorists should be prepared for expanding slippery conditions along Interstate 68, I-79, I-80, I-90 and I-99, as well as the Pennsylvania Turnpike and Southern Tier Expressway during Saturday night and Sunday.

Even in absence of a widespread area of heavy snow, bands of lake-effect snow will occur. There is the potential that strong winds could sweep eastward and hinder high-profile vehicles on the highways and cause airline delays from Chicago to Detroit and Pittsburgh during Saturday to Sunday and from Washington, D.C., to Philadelphia and New York City spanning Sunday to Monday.

More storms to queue up during Thanksgiving week

As one storm exits the Northeast with its charge of cold air, a new storm will arrive along the Pacific coast Sunday night and Monday.

Motorists venturing north or south along the I-5 corridor will encounter patches of rain during Sunday and Monday. Rain can extend as far south as Los Angeles and San Diego.

This new storm will spread patchy snow across the Intermountain West with some rain over the interior Southwest during Monday into Monday night, including the Phoenix area. Where little rain falls, winds may be strong enough to cause some blowing dust along the I-10 corridor.

As travel ramps up Tuesday into Wednesday, the new storm will be gathering moisture and producing more substantial precipitation over part of the Central states.

While precise timing and the dividing line between rain and snow are not certain this far out, there is the potential for a substantial and impactful storm with rain and snow during the middle of next week.

The exact track and strength of the storm will determine where rain versus snow will fall over the Midwest and also the severity of any thunderstorms that swing through areas farther south.

Up until any downpours sweep across the South on Wednesday or Thursday, smoke will periodically reduce the visibility around the southern Appalachians. At times, the smoke can be thick enough to slow travel on the highways.

The storm has the potential to cause travel disruptions by the middle of the week in major hubs such as Chicago, Minneapolis, St. Louis, Detroit, Cincinnati, Nashville, Atlanta and New Orleans.

By Thanksgiving Day, the same storm may be producing drenching rain along the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts with rain or snow inland.

As one storm converges the Midwest then the Northeast during the middle of next week, yet another storm will roll into the Northwest.

Heavy rain and poor visibility could be a problem along I-5, including the Seattle area, with snow for parts of the Cascades and northern Rockies during the day before Thanksgiving.

While the track and speed of the storms will vary, the bulk of the direct weather impacts will be over the northern half of the nation leading up to Thanksgiving, according to AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok.

“The greatest chance of some direct and significant travel impacts through this week and during much of Thanksgiving week will be from the I-70 corridor on north to the Canada border,” Pastelok said.

Regardless of calm weather at your departure or destination point, inclement weather at other airports could displace aircraft and crews for a time and lead to delays or cancellations.

Alex Sosnowski is senior meteorologist for www.AccuWeather.com .

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LAKE COUNTY, Calif. – Forecasters are predicting fog, sunshine and rain for Lake County on Thanksgiving.

The National Weather Service's latest forecast for Lake County anticipates Thanksgiving will begin with patchy fog before 10 a.m., before conditions clear and the sun comes out.

Temperatures around the county are expected to be in the mid 50s during the day on Thursday, with light winds.

On Thanksgiving night, chances of rain – ranging up to 30 percent in some parts of the county – are forecast.

The forecast calls for chances of rain from Friday through Sunday, with conditions expected to clear through the middle of next week.

Accuweather reports that most of the nation will be rain-free on Thanksgiving, although the Northeast and Pacific Northwest will have wet and wintry weather.

A strong storm is forecast to slam into the Pacific Northwest on Thanksgiving, with heavy rain and gusty winds along the Washington and Oregon coastlines, Accuweather said.

Email Elizabeth Larson at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. . Follow her on Twitter, @ERLarson, or Lake County News, @LakeCoNews.

LOWER LAKE, Calif. – Due to issues involving its condition, the Anderson Marsh State Historic Park Ranch House has been temporarily closed and the popular Christmas event has been canceled this year.

During the Clayton fire in Lower Lake in August, State Park Rangers and maintenance staff evacuated valuable items from the ranch house.

During this process, State Parks determined that extensive cleaning and repair will be needed before the ranch house can be reopened to the public.

Although the ranch house roof was replaced this summer, that alone was not enough to restore and maintain the historic old building, parts of which were originally constructed in 1855.

Unfortunately, closure of the ranch house means that the annual “Christmas at the Ranch” event, presented by the Anderson Marsh Interpretive Association, will have to be canceled for this year.

“We are very disappointed that the Christmas event will have to be canceled,” said association President Roberta Lyons. “At the present time, we do not know when the ranch house can be reopened to the public. It is vital, however, that the historic Anderson ranch house be preserved in perpetuity and it has reached the point where extensive work is necessary to maintain the building.”

For information about AMIA and its programs, visit www.andersonmarsh.org or contact the Anderson Marsh Interpretive Association at either This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. or 707-995-2658.

The California Highway Patrol is teaming up with seven other state law enforcement agencies across the nation in the fourth annual “Interstate 40 Challenge: The Drive toward Zero Fatalities.”

The campaign, which will be conducted during the Thanksgiving weekend, will focus special attention on the more than 2,500-mile stretch of Interstate 40 (I-40) that begins in North Carolina and ends in California.

The campaign encourages each agency to assign an officer every 20 miles along the I-40 corridor over 12-hour periods on Wednesday and Sunday – the Thanksgiving holiday’s busiest travel days.

Interstate 40 traverses California, Arizona, New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Tennessee and North Carolina.

“Accepting the challenge and working with our law enforcement partners and the public has proven very successful in years past,” CHP Commissioner Joe Farrow said. “California did not experience a single fatality on I-40 during past challenges. With the public’s cooperation, the CHP will continue to promote a safe traveling season during the Thanksgiving holiday.”

The CHP reminds all motorists to never drive while under the influence of drugs or alcohol, always wear your seat belt, travel at a safe speed for conditions and avoid distractions behind the wheel.

Millions of Californians will travel the road this Thanksgiving holiday weekend to visit with family and friends.

While this time of year is usually full of joy, it can be one of the deadliest on our roadways. To help motorists avoid tragedies, the California Highway Patrol will have all available officers on patrol during the Thanksgiving Maximum Enforcement Period, or MEP.

Although the number of people killed in traffic collisions during last year’s Thanksgiving weekend was down from 2014, 35 people died in collisions in California. Of the 17 vehicle occupants killed within CHP jurisdiction, 41 percent of them were not wearing seat belts.

“Buckling up is simple and the most important safety measure you can take to protect yourself in a collision,” CHP Commissioner Joe Farrow said. “Seat belts save lives and prevent injuries. Do not put your own life at risk, or the life of your family or friends. Buckle up.”

Nationwide, more than half the drivers and passengers killed in collisions are not wearing seat belts. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration estimates that seat belts saved the lives of 12,802 passenger vehicle occupants in 2014.

The MEP begins at 6:01 p.m. on Wednesday, Nov. 23, and continues through 11:59 p.m. on Sunday, Nov. 27.

During the MEP, CHP officers will educate motorists and enforce traffic safety laws throughout the state to ensure everyone has a safe holiday.

The CHP reminds motorists to travel at a speed that is safe for conditions, avoid driving distracted and designate a non-drinking driver for the safety of everyone on the road.

Last year during the Thanksgiving holiday, the CHP made more than 1,000 arrests for DUI.

The public is encouraged to report unsafe or impaired drivers by calling 9-1-1.