LAKE COUNTY, Calif. — If invasive mussels were to get into Clear Lake, how would the county of Lake respond?
The Lake County Water Resources Department, partnering with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and consultants at Creative Resource Strategies, invites the public to attend a virtual forum to discuss how the county will respond in the event invasive quagga or zebra mussels become introduced or established in Clear Lake.
The forum will be held at 10 a.m. Thursday, Feb. 2, via Zoom.
Anyone that has a business or residence in Lake County, and/or values or recreates on Clear Lake or other lakes in the county is encouraged to participate in the webinar.
Clear Lake is the largest natural freshwater lake located entirely in California, and consistently ranks among Bassmaster’s top 10 bass fishing lakes.
Although Clear Lake provides ideal water quality conditions and habitat for an established mussel introduction, Clear Lake currently has no quagga or zebra mussels.
Lake County relies on a prevention program supported primarily through state grants. Local mussel stickers are also sold.
Clear Lake is the county's central feature, providing economic and ecological stability to the entire region.
However, the popularity and accessibility of Clear Lake, combined with water quality conditions optimal for mussel establishment, mean risk of invasive mussel invasion is extremely high.
The Feb. 2 webinar will share information on the invasive mussel rapid response and containment transition project, which is intended to improve the current Clear Lake aquatic invasive species program while preparing for an invasive mussel introduction to Clear Lake or Lake County.
The webinar will share the goals of the project and the approach that will be taken to achieve those goals, the timeline and products.
A containment and transition plan, feasibility analysis for permanent watercraft decontamination stations, and assessment of regulations and ordinances are three key outcomes.
Information regarding consequences to Clear Lake and neighboring lakes from a mussel invasion will also be shared, including potential impacts to county revenue and property values, effects on native fish and wildlife, and increased costs and maintenance for all water suppliers and self-supplied water users.
By preparing for an invasion, the county is seeking to mitigate effects to the local economy and natural resources.
The county said the commitment of local residents, boat ramp monitors, and county, state and federal agency personnel has been critical to preventing quagga and zebra mussel introduction in Clear Lake.
“Continued vigilance and collective action is essential; relenting in this important effort could invite far-reaching environmental and economic harm,” the county said in a statement on the meeting.
If you have any questions or need more information, please contact the Water Resources Department at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. or by phone, at 707-263-2344.
Also visit the Water Resources Departments’ website or the Lake County Water Resources Department Facebook page, @lakecountywater.
LAKE COUNTY, Calif. — The Board of Supervisors on Tuesday put off a decision on whether to adopt a proclamation declaring a local emergency regarding the rapid decline of the Clear Lake hitch.
On Tuesday evening, following several hours of presentations, testimony and public input about the native fish’s increasingly desperate situation, the board — appearing exhausted individually and as a group — reached consensus to consider the information and bring the proclamation back for a decision at its Feb. 7 meeting.
The meeting highlighted the disagreements over the causes of the fish’s decline as well as what measures might help save it.
The tribes want to see fewer diversions from creeks and wells, especially when it comes to frost protection practices which take place earlier in the year and overlap with the spawning season.
In response, members of the agriculture community raised issue with not having been invited to the table during the discussions with state and federal officials and tribes, disputed the idea that pumping less groundwater would impact surface water, and said if frost protection isn’t available, some crops — pears and winegrapes in particular — would no longer be viable.
The proclamation the board considered Tuesday, which was brought forward by supervisors EJ Crandell and Michael Green, can be seen below.
It includes nine proposed actions, ranging from asking the governor to declare a state of emergency due to persistent drought and habitat loss, to requests for emergency action from several local, state and federal agencies — the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the Blue Ribbon Committee for the Rehabilitation of Clear Lake, the State Water Resources Control Board, California Fish and Game Commission, California Department of Fish and Wildlife, the Bureau of Land Management and the Lake County Water Resources Department.
Much is at stake in the case of the hitch, the population of which is believed to be so dangerously low that state officials said it could become the first species in California to become extinct in 50 years.
“This is not a situation that any one entity can resolve,” said Erika Zavalete, vice president of the California Fish and Game Commission, one of the many state officials who spoke on Tuesday and who offered her support for the board’s emergency proclamation.
Adding to the urgency is that the hitch has great cultural significance for Lake County’s tribes, members of which recalled fishing for them and using them for sustenance.
The Clear Lake hitch is one of three hitch subspecies in California. The other two are the Monterey hitch and the Sacramento hitch.
Another native fish to Clear Lake, the Clear Lake splittail, is believed to be extinct as it hasn’t been seen since the 1970s and was preyed upon by bass and catfish, with competition by silversides that were introduced into the lake.
The hitch is a moderate-sized minnow that has a six year lifespan, with females having just four years to contribute to the population.
It is a potamodromous fish, meaning it mostly matures in the lake. The juveniles rear near shore and in Clear Lake’s tributaries, while the adults occupy deeper water, feeding on aquatic invertebrates during daylight hours.
The hitch spawns from February through May or June, spawning over shallow, clean gravel, primarily in tributaries, although some spawning occurs in the lake.
The United States Geological Survey has been conducting summer gill net surveys since 2017, the last year that they found a significant population of juvenile hitch. Since then, the juveniles have declined precipitously, to the point where over the past few years few, if any, have been found.
A number of factors have contributed to their decline, which began to be recorded in the 1950s. There are water quality and contamination issues and climate impacts, including dry periods that result in low water, which makes it difficult for the hitch to move past barriers and get to the lake.
Physical barriers alone — which include roads and other forms of development — have had a major impact on the hitch. It’s estimated that there has been a loss of 92% of the hitch’s historically available habitat due to physical barriers, according to Felipe La Luz, environmental biologist with the California Department of Fish and Wildlife.
Plus, there is predation by invasive species, such as the common carp, which eat hitch eggs and also burrow deep into the lakebed, as well as competition from threadfin shad and silversides, also species introduced from the outside.
In 2014, the hitch was listed as a threatened species under the California Endangered Species Act, but the federal government hasn’t done the same. The Center for Biological Diversity challenged that decision in federal court, but while the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service is reconsidering listing the hitch, a decision won’t be made until 2025.
By then, tribes and state and local officials are concerned it will be too late.
On Nov. 3, the California Fish and Game Commission wrote to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to request emergency listing of the hitch under the Endangered Species Act, with the Center for Biological Diversity and several Lake County tribes joining the effort to advocate for that action in December.
The tribes and state and local officials also held a summit on the situation in December.
La Luz, one of a number of state officials who spoke to the supervisors on Tuesday afternoon, said the situation with the hitch is moving much faster than CDFW is used to moving as a state agency. He said the hitch’s issues don’t fall under any one agency and it’s necessary to work together to keep them on the landscape.
Deep disagreements over causes
“We don’t want to have the Clear Lake hitch go extinct,” said Sarah Ryan, the environmental director and emergency management director for the Big Valley Pomo, who was one of the presenters during the Tuesday afternoon meeting.
After the tribe heard from a state biologist who said that unless big things change, the hitch will become extinct, “It really threw us into high gear,” said Ryan.
Ryan pointed to challenges such as people diverting water and damming up creeks, low water levels in creeks, and a need to better monitor and document ag water use.
Her recommendations included surface water curtailments on all Clear Lake creeks for declared dry years during hitch spawning season; installing live reading gauges in the creeks where hitch spawn, including Adobe and Kelsey creeks; a water release from reservoirs during the hitch’s historic spawning run period; aquifer recharge; and groundwater pumping curtailments within one mile of Clear Lake creeks for declared dry years during the spawning season.
Peter Windrem, a farmer and retired lawyer who has lived on Kelsey Creek his entire life, co-founded the Chi Council for the Clear Lake Hitch. He and other volunteers who spent years monitoring the hitch have seen their numbers decline starting in the 1970s.
Windrem questioned the conclusions about the impacts of frost protection on hitch spawning and said winegrapes and pears can’t be raised in Big Valley without frost protection.
He said that, since 2004, Adobe Creek has never failed to have a hitch spawning run, unlike other tributaries to Clear Lake.
Windrem said farmers and ag need to be part of this discussion. “They have not been asked to participate in any of these discussions going on between the tries and the governmental agencies or anyone else and we’re the folks who know.”
Testimony from more tribal and agricultural interests, along with state officials, as well as board discussion continued until after 7 p.m.
The board reached consensus to bring the matter back, citing the amount of information to consider.
That continuation is anticipated to take place at the board’s next regular meeting on Feb. 7. The board normally does not have meetings on the fifth Tuesday of the month.
Proposed actions from the draft proclamation:
1. That the Governor proclaim a State of Emergency in Lake County due to persistent drought and habitat loss such that the potential extinction of the Clear Lake hitch appears to be imminent unless immediate and direct action is taken, and local resources are inadequate to cope with the emergency.
2. That the Director of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (“USFWS”) provide emergency funding and resources adequate to protect the Clear Lake hitch while its court-ordered review process is under way, and to promptly disclose any legal or financial constraints which would limit such emergency support.
3. That USFWS, among its other emergency actions, prioritize and expedite completion of the draft Clear Lake Hitch Strategy in coordination and cooperation with other government agencies and native sovereign nations and timely circulate the strategy for signatures and implementation.
4. That the chair of the Blue Ribbon Committee for the Rehabilitation of Clear Lake convene a meeting as soon as practical to consider the status of the Clear Lake hitch and threats to its 2023 spawning run, accept public testimony, and prioritize and approve hitch-beneficial projects, activities and funding.
5. That the State Water Resources Control Board immediately order and direct enhanced compliance and enforcement activities to stop illegal water diversions affecting Clear Lake and its tributaries; and to enforce the adopted orders of the Irrigated Lands Regulatory Program and Cannabis Cultivation Waste Discharge Regulatory Program to ensure they are protective of Clear Lake hitch habitats as applied.
6. That the State Water Resources Control Board consider whether to develop emergency regulations and/or information order, as may be appropriate, to help to establish and monitor interim and restorative instream flow levels and/or seasonal curtailment of surface stream diversions from Lake County watercourses in order to assure the continued viability of the Clear Lake hitch and other aquatic species, pursuant to Water Code §§ 1058.5 and 1259.4(a)(2) and Public Resources Code § 10000, et seq.
7. That the California Fish and Game Commission and/or California Department of Fish and Wildlife, as may be appropriate, take reasonable steps to consider whether emergency regulations or amendments to sport fishing regulations are needed to reduce predation of Clear Lake hitch by carp and other non-native predatory fish; to consider whether establishment of one or more chi fish hatcheries or refuges within the County of Lake is feasible and warranted; to review and recommend shoreline habitat improvement strategies and projects; and for the Fish and Game Commission to schedule and conduct at least one meeting within the County of Lake to accept public testimony regarding any chi-related actions.
8. That the Ukiah field office manager of the Bureau of Land Management take reasonable and prudent steps to identify and mitigate erosion and sediment transport attributed to fire, flood, off-highway vehicle use, abandoned mines in and near stream channels, and any other conditions that may adversely affect Clear Lake hitch migration and survival within and downstream of BLM-managed lands and waterways, including Cache Creek Wilderness and North and South Cow Mountain Recreation areas.
9. That the Lake County Water Resources Department submit a mid-year budget request authorizing reimbursement for unanticipated costs for chi-related projects and programs, the amount and source(s) of such funding being contingent upon review and approval by the Board of Supervisors.
Email Elizabeth Larson at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.. Follow her on Twitter, @ERLarson, or Lake County News, @LakeCoNews.
LAKE COUNTY, Calif. — Lake County now officially has a new chief probation officer.
Wendy Mondfrans has been appointed chief probation officer by the judges of the Lake County Superior Court.
Mondfrans has been filling the position on an interim basis since Jan. 3, after her predecessor, Rob Howe, was sworn in as the new sheriff, the court reported.
Court officials said Mondfrans has worked for Probation since 2010, and has held several positions including deputy probation officer, senior, chief deputy probation officer, and most recently assistant chief probation officer.
As assistant chief probation officer, Mondfrans has experience in managing all divisions and functions within the Probation Department.
Prior to her work with Probation, Mondfrans was a practicing attorney.
“Wendy’s knowledge of the probation field, her commitment to the Probation Department and her work ethic are all second to none. She has been my ‘go to’ person for all things probation. The department is in good hands,” said Sheriff Howe.
"I would like to thank the Judges for this opportunity and their faith in me to continue leading the Probation Department,” Mondfrans said. “The dedicated and hardworking individuals who work in the Department are committed to public safety, helping victims, and utilizing evidence based practices to assist offenders to achieve a more productive lifestyle. It is an honor and a pleasure to work with the employees and partnering agencies each day.”
LAKE COUNTY, Calif. — As more boaters are getting out on Clear Lake in the wake of the recent storms, local officials are urging caution.
Stormwater runoff from recent rains has washed trees and other floating debris into the Clear Lake.
The Lake County Water Resources Department advises county residents and visitors to take caution to avoid such hazards when boating.
Some logs appear small on the surface; please be aware, they could be mostly submerged.
Lake County Water Resources Department advises boaters to maintain a safe speed and keep a clear line of vision ahead of their vessel, especially in dusk and dawn hours, when light is limited.
The Water Resources Department will patrol the lake and remove hazardous floating debris. However, boaters should remain alert and aware of their surroundings as more rain and debris flow is expected.
Contact the Lake County Water Resources Department at 707-263-2344 if you have questions or concerns about lake debris.
LAKE COUNTY, Calif. — The Lake County Sheriff’s Office Major Crimes Unit is requesting community assistance in locating a missing person.
Nancy Mingey, 55, Lakeport, has not been seen or heard from since Jan. 4, officials said.
The agency said Mingey was last seen in Lakeport on Jan. 3.
She was reported missing to the Lake County Sheriff’s Office on Jan. 19.
Mingey is reported to have a butterfly tattoo on one of her hands, between her thumb and index finger, and a California poppy tattoo on her thigh.
Anyone with information related to the whereabouts of Nancy Mingey is asked to contact Deputy Joseph Lyons at 707-262-4200 or This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it..
Poverty rates for children (under age 18) in U.S. counties are wide-ranging, from less than 1.0% to 72.7%, according to the American Community Survey (ACS) 5-year estimates.
The U.S. Census Bureau’s 2017-2021 ACS differs from the 1-year estimates released in September because it pools five consecutive years of 1-year estimates. This allows us to estimate poverty in geographies with smaller populations, including all 3,143 counties in the United States.
This article focuses on the poverty rates of the nation’s youngest and oldest age groups at the county level. It also analyzes the change in rates from the 2012-2016 ACS to the subsequent period of 2017-2021.
According to the new estimates, the national child poverty rate declined from 21.2% in the 2012-2016 period to 17.0% in the 2017-2021 period. But it was still 4.4 percentage points higher than the ACS national overall poverty rate of 12.6% during the same period.
In contrast, the poverty rate (9.6%) of people ages 65 and older during the 2017-2021 period was 3 percentage points lower than the overall rate.
How poverty is measured
Government agencies, researchers and local organizations regularly use poverty estimates to measure economic well-being and identify the number of individuals and families eligible for various assistance programs.
Poverty status is determined by comparing annual income to a set of dollar values (called poverty thresholds) that vary by family size, number of children and age of the householder.
The poverty threshold differs for individuals and families of different sizes.
A family and each individual member of that family are considered in poverty if the family’s before-tax money income is less than the dollar value of its threshold. Poverty status of people not living in families is determined by comparing an individual’s income to their poverty threshold.
The poverty measure excludes children under the age of 15 who are not related to the householder and people living in institutional group quarters, college dormitories or military barracks. Population totals in this article include only those whose poverty status can be determined.
Child poverty by county and region
Only 117 (or 3.7%) of the nation’s counties – more than half with a poverty universe population of less than 10,000 – had poverty rates of 40% or more. The majority (81.2%) of them were in the South.
Conversely, 302 U.S. counties, 9.6% of all counties, had a child poverty rate below 8%. Nearly half (146) of them were in the Midwest.
Figure 1 illustrates the uneven distribution of child poverty in U.S. counties.
Change From 2012-2016 to 2017-2021
Child poverty rates changed significantly in 1,104 counties from 2012-2016 to 2017-2021 (Figure 2):
• Child poverty rates declined in 1,017 counties. • 43% of counties with declining child poverty rates were in the South. • Child poverty rates increased in far fewer counties (87). Over half were in the South.
Poverty rates of older populations by county and region
The poverty rate for people ages 65 and over increased from 9.3% in 2012-2016 to 9.6% in 2017-2021 but rates varied widely across counties – from less than 1.0% to 47.9%.
As with child poverty, there were regional clusters of high- and low-poverty counties (Figure 3).
There were 201 counties with less than 5.0% of individuals ages 65 and up in poverty; 41.8% of them were in the Midwest.
Conversely, there were 76 counties with poverty rates at or above 22.0% for people ages 65 and over; 73.7% of them were in the South.
From 2012-2016 to 2017-2021, 513 counties experienced a significant change in poverty rates for people ages 65 and over: 282 counties had an increase, and 231 counties a decrease (Figure 4).
Of the counties with declining rates, nearly 200 (86%) were in the South or Midwest. Within individual regions, 8.4% of all counties in the South had declining poverty rates; 7.6% in the Midwest; 6.0% in the West; and 2.3% in the Northeast.
Of the counties with increased rates of poverty among people ages 65 and over, 39.4% were in the South. Regionally, 14.8% of all counties in the Northeast had increasing rates compared to 11.6% in the West; 8.2% in the Midwest; and 7.8% in the South.
More counties saw poverty rates among older populations increase than decrease from 2012-2016 to 2017-2021, the opposite of the pattern seen among children.
Poverty rates among the 65-plus population increased in 282 counties from 2012-2016 to 2017-2021. Of these counties, 108 experienced declines in child poverty rates and five increases in poverty rates in both age categories.
Of the 231 counties with declining poverty rates for those 65 and over, 88 also had declining child poverty rates and four had increases.
In the Northeast, 0.9% of counties had an increase in child poverty rates but 14.8% of counties showed an increase in the poverty rate of those ages 65 and over. Similarly, only 2.7% of counties in the West had an increase in child poverty rates but 11.6% had an increase in poverty rates of the older population.
Additional poverty data are available at data.census.gov and this topics page provides links to poverty estimates from other surveys such as the Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement (CPS ASEC) and the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP). Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates (SAIPE) are also available.
Craig Benson is a survey statistician in the Census Bureau’s Poverty Statistics Branch.
LAKE COUNTY, Calif. — Lake County is expected to have above-average temperatures for the rest of this week, but forecasters said there could be rain this weekend and early next.
The National Weather Service said dry conditions are expected to last into Friday “with temperatures warming to above average toward the end of the work week.”
The forecast continues, “Wetter conditions are expected to return later in the weekend into early next week with rain and mountain snow possible as well as below average temperatures.”
The agency’s forecast discussion explained that a strong high pressure system over the northeast Pacific is keeping conditions over northwest California warmer, and it’s expected to strengthen into Thursday.
This weekend, the pattern change is expected, bringing an upper level “trough” — an area of atmospheric pressure — is expected to drop southward over the West Coast this weekend and into early next week.
As a result, light rain is expected later in the weekend and into early next week.
The specific Lake County forecast calls for daytime highs in the low 60s until this weekend, when they will drop into the mid 50s. Nighttime temperatures are forecast to be in the low to mid 40s.
From Friday through Monday, nighttime conditions will drop from the high to the low 30s, based on the forecast.
Calm winds also are forecast from Wednesday through Friday.
Email Elizabeth Larson at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.. Follow her on Twitter, @ERLarson, or Lake County News, @LakeCoNews.
LAKE COUNTY, Calif. — Lake County had a slight improvement in its jobless rate in December, according to the latest state report on unemployment.
The Employment Development Department reported that Lake County’s unemployment rate was 5.1% in December, down from the 5.3% rate reported in November.
In December 2021, Lake County’s jobless rate was 5.8%.
The state of California’s unemployment rate in December was 4.1%, the same as November 2022’s rate. The state jobless rate in December 2021 was 5.8%.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the national unemployment rate in December 2022 was 3.5%, compared to 3.6% in November and 3.9% in December 2021.
In Lake County in December, the workforce totaled 28,130 individuals, with 1,430 unemployed.
Most industry sectors in Lake County showed drops in job numbers or no change, with the exception of professional and business services, which showed an increase of 2.8%, and retail trade, up by 0.4%.
California payroll jobs totaled 17,761,900 in December 2022, up 16,200 from November 2022 and up 621,400 from September of last year.
The number of Californians employed in December was 18,440,500, a decrease of 20,000 persons from November’s total of 18,460,500, but up 589,500 from the employment total in December, according to the report.
The Employment Development Department said the number of unemployed Californians was 782,300 in December, a decrease of 6,700 over the month and down 312,800 in comparison to December 2021.
Total nonfarm jobs in California’s 11 major industries totaled 17,761,900 in December — a net gain of 16,200 from November. This followed a downward revised (-6,900) month-over gain of 19,900 jobs in November, the state said.
The report said total nonfarm jobs increased by 621,400 (a 3.6% increase) from December 2021 to December 2022 compared to the U.S. annual gain of 4,503,000 jobs (a 3% increase).
The number of jobs in the agriculture industry increased from November by 5,100 to a total of 416,200 jobs in December. The agricultural industry had 4,900 more farm jobs in December 2022 than it did in December a year ago, the state said.
The Employment Development Department said December 2022 marked the 15th consecutive month of nonfarm job gains, which now totals 807,300 jobs over that time period for a monthly average gain of 53,820 jobs.
Year over, California job growth at 3.6% has outpaced the U.S. as a whole at 3% by 0.6 percentage points and the state has 70,000 more jobs than pre-pandemic levels in February 2020.
In other news, nine of California’s 11 industry sectors gained jobs in December with education and health services (+8,200) showing the largest month-over gains thanks to strength in home health care services, residential care facilities, and individual and family services, the Employment Development Department reported.
Construction (+7,500) also enjoyed a strong month-over gain of more than 7,500 jobs thanks, in part, to good gains in specialty trade contractors, the report showed.
The state said trade, transportation and utilities (-11,100) suffered from losses in merchant wholesalers of both durable and nondurable goods, as well as with reductions in retail trade, including health and personal care stores and office supplies, stationary, and gift stores.
Lake County’s unemployment rate last month earned it the No. 41 ranking statewide among the state’s 58 counties.
San Mateo continued to have California’s lowest unemployment rate, 1.9%, while Imperial had the highest, 14.8%.
In related data that figures into the state’s unemployment rate, there were 326,252 people certifying for Unemployment Insurance benefits during the December 2022 sample week. That compares to 306,550 people in November and 355,749 people in December 2021.
Concurrently, 41,550 initial claims were processed in the December 2022 sample week, which was a month-over decrease of 6,271 claims from November and a year-over decrease of 7,521 claims from December 2021.
Email Elizabeth Larson at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.. Follow her on Twitter, @ERLarson, or Lake County News, @LakeCoNews.
Dariush Mozaffarian, Tufts University; Jeffrey B. Blumberg, Tufts University; Paul F. Jacques, Tufts University, and Renata Micha, Tufts University
Many people aim to start the year off with healthier food choices. But how do you choose between seemingly similar foods, snacks or beverages? How does a bagel with cream cheese compare to toast topped with avocado, for instance? Or a protein-based shake compared to a smoothie packed with fruits? Or two chicken dishes, prepared in different ways?
As nutrition scientists who have spent our entire careers studying how different foods influence health, our team at Tufts University has created a new food rating system, the Food Compass, that could help consumers and others make informed choices about these kinds of questions.
Food rating systems explained
Many such systems exist and are widely used around the globe. Each one combines facts about different nutritional aspects of foods to provide an overall measure of healthfulness, which can be communicated to consumers through package labels or shelf tags. They can also be used to help guide product reformulations or socially conscious investment goals for investors.
All such food rating systems have strengths and limitations. Most aim to be simple, using data on just a few nutrients or ingredients. While this is practical, it can omit other important determinants of healthfulness – like the degree of food processing and fermentation and the presence of diverse food ingredients or nutrients like omega-3s and flavonoids, plant compounds that offer an array of health benefits.
Some systems also emphasize older nutrition science. For example, nearly all give negative points for total fat, regardless of fat type, and focus on saturated fat alone, rather than overall fat quality. Another common shortcoming is not assessing refined grains and starches, which have similar metabolic harms as added sugars and represent about one-third of calories in the U.S. food supply. And many give negative points for total calories, regardless of their source.
Enter the Food Compass
To address each of these gaps, in 2021 our research team created the Food Compass. This system assesses 54 different attributes of foods, selected based on the strength of scientific evidence for their health effects. Food Compass maps and scores these attributes across nine distinct dimensions and then combines them into a single score, ranging from 1 (least healthy) to 100 (most healthy). It incorporates new science on multiple food ingredients and nutrients; does not penalize total fat or focus on saturated fat; and gives negative points for processing and refined carbs.
We have now evaluated 58,000 products using Food Compass and found that it generally performs very well in scoring foods. Minimally processed, bioactive-rich foods like fruits, veggies, beans, whole grains, nuts, yogurt and seafood score at the top. Other animal foods, like eggs, milk, cheese, poultry and meat, typically score in the middle. Processed foods rich in refined grains and sugars, like refined cereals, breads, crackers and energy bars, and processed meats fall at the bottom.
We found Food Compass to be especially useful when comparing seemingly similar food items, like different breads, different desserts or different mixed meals. Food Compass also appears to work better than existing rating systems for certain food groups.
For example, it gives lower scores to processed foods that are rich in refined grains and starch and to low-fat processed foods that are often marketed as healthy, like deli meats and hot dogs, fat-free salad dressings, pre-sweetened fruit drinks, energy drinks and coffees. It also gives higher scores to foods rich in unsaturated oils, like nuts and olive oil. Compared with older rating systems, these improvements are more aligned with the latest science on the health effects of these foods.
We also assessed how Food Compass relates to major health outcomes in people. In a national sample of 48,000 Americans, we calculated each person’s individual Food Compass score, ranging from 1 to 100, based on the different foods and beverages they reported eating.
We found that people whose diets scored higher according to Food Compass had better overall health than those with lower scores. This includes less obesity, better blood sugar control, lower blood pressure and better blood cholesterol levels. They also had a lower risk of metabolic syndrome or cancer and a lower risk of death from all causes. For every 10-point higher Food Compass score, a person had about a 7% lower risk of dying. These are important findings, showing that, on average, eating foods with higher Food Compass scores is linked to numerous improved health outcomes.
Fine-tuning
While we believe Food Compass represents a significant advance over existing systems, more work is needed before it can be rolled out to consumers.
As one step, we’re investigating how the scoring algorithm can be further improved. For example, we’re considering the most appropriate scoring for food items like certain cereals that are high in whole grains and fiber but are also processed and have added sugar. And we’re looking at the scoring of different egg, cheese, poultry and meat products, which have a wide range of scores but sometimes score a bit lower than may make intuitive sense.
Over the coming year we will be refining and improving the system based on our research, the latest evidence and feedback from the scientific community.
In addition, more research is needed on how a consumer might understand and use Food Compass in practice. For example, it could be added as a front-of-pack label – but would that be helpful without more education and context?
Also, while the scoring system ranges from 1 to 100, could it be more accessible if scores were grouped into broader categories? For instance, might a green/yellow/red traffic light system be easier to understand?
And we’re hoping that future Food Compass versions might contain additional criteria to filter foods for people who follow special diets, such as low-carb, paleo, vegetarian, diabetic-friendly, low-sodium and others.
The big picture
Food Compass should not be used to replace food-based dietary guidelines and preferences. Raspberries and asparagus score really well – but a diet of only these foods would not be very healthy. People should seek a balanced diet across different food groups.
To help, Food Compass may be most useful to compare similar products within a food group. For example, someone who prefers eggs for breakfast can look for higher-scoring egg dishes. Those preferring cereal can look for higher-scoring cereals. And even better, Food Compass can help people add other highest-scoring foods to their plate – like veggies and healthy oils to eggs, and fruit and nuts to cereal – to increase the overall health benefits of that meal.
To make use by others as easy as possible, we’ve published all the details of the scoring algorithm, and the scores of the products evaluated, so that anyone can take what we’ve done and use it.
Stay tuned – as we complete additional research, we believe Food Compass will become an important tool to clear up confusion in the grocery store and help people make healthier choices.
Indeed, Feeding America, a nonprofit that supports and connects roughly 60,000 food banks and pantries nationwide, has said that at least half of its members are seeing more demand for their services. And many journalists are reporting about struggling parents waiting in long lines for free food.
The data we’re collecting ourselves, as well as the information that we’ve compiled from other sources, including the Census Bureau, isn’t yet reflecting a sharp uptick in households without enough to eat. U.S. food insecurity has remained at troubling and yet relatively flat levels.
Based on all the data we’ve included in our dashboard, we estimate that over the course of 2022 somewhere between 11% and 15% of those living in the U.S. struggled with securing their next meal.
Food insecurity is officially assessed based on a series of survey questions developed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service. Every December, the federal government uses this measure to assess food insecurity for the past year. Following extensive analysis, it releases that data in September of the next year.
The official food insecurity rate hovered around 10.5% from 2019 to 2021, according to the USDA.
During those same three years, however, other researchers detected both lower and much higher rates. Our average of these surveys suggests that national levels may have peaked at nearly 19% in the months following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic the U.S. in March 2020.
Within about six months, food insecurity returned to the 10%-11% range, based on our average of available data.
One reason could be that food insecurity rates, which generally overlap with social and economic inequality, can differ sharply.
For example, Nassau County, which spans many of New York City’s largely affluent Long Island suburbs, had a food insecurity rate of 5.7% in 2020. In nearby Bronx County, New York state’s lowest-income county, the food insecurity rate was more than three times that, at 19.7%, according to Feeding America’s Map the Meal Gap study.
As a result, food security can get worse or better in particular communities without affecting the national rate.
Survey data from our Consumer Food Insights reports also shows that the average length of time households receive SNAP benefits increased from 9.5 months to 12.4 months in 2022.
The charitable food system is decentralized, making it hard if not impossible to determine whether the amount of food donated to Americans overall has changed. As Feeding America reports, the 2.5 billion meals that its network provided in the first half of 2022 came from a range of donors, with its corporate partners playing a big role.
To be clear, we do not mean to suggest that food insecurity is not a serious issue or that having more than 1 in 10 Americans struggle to get enough to eat is acceptable.
Rather, we noticed that policy and research interest in food insecurity spiked in the year following COVID-19 shutdowns, resulting in much more data on the topic before dwindling in 2021. Today, the public is paying more attention to the topic again.
Food banks and SNAP benefits collectively have provided around $130 billion in annual economic relief for low-income Americans in recent years, a number that includes a sharp increase in benefits. We believe that these efforts are vital.
We propose that conducting and releasing more frequent high-quality surveys would help bring sustained attention to the issue, clarify trends and allow experts like us to make better predictions.
And because all food insecurity surveys are subject to sampling errors and offer only a snapshot regarding a single time frame, we believe that pooling the multiple surveys featured in our data dashboard can better inform policymakers and charities that seek to address food insecurity and rapidly respond when levels spike.