LAKE COUNTY, Calif. – The Lakeport City Council has unanimously approved renaming a city walking path in honor of a local woman who helped create it.
The council approved a resolution naming the downtown walking path “The Ann Blue Walking Path” in honor of Ann Blue.
Public Works Director Doug Grider presented the resolution to the council at its Nov. 3 meeting.
Grider said Blue was the driving force for designating the walking path, which extends from Martin Street at the south end of town to 16th Street to the north. It follows Main Street, looping around Library Park and then follows another loop that includes N. High Street and Clearlake Avenue.
While working on the walking path, Blue was a member of the city’s Parks and Recreation Committee. She also previously served on the Lakeport Planning Commission and the Traffic Safety Advisory Committee, and was a longtime member of the Clear Lake Trowel & Trellis Garden Club.
The council approved the proposal to create the walking path in February 2016. Initial funding came from a $5,000 grant from the Sutter Lakeside Active Living Grant Program.
At the time the council approved the plan, Blue said she had been working on the path since July 2015.
Grider said the proposal to name the path for Blue was brought to the Parks and Recreation Commission, which agreed and asked staff to bring it to the council.
He said Blue walked the path many times to make sure it would work.
Grider also recognized Blue for being very active in community projects and in her service on city commissions.
Mayor George Spurr said he had the honor of working with Blue on the Traffic Safety Advisory Committee, calling her a very nice lady. Renaming the path in her honor is “definitely something we should do,” he said.
Suzanne Russell, who formerly served on the planning commission, Traffic Safety Advisory Committee and the Parks and Recreation Commission, said she had the pleasure of working with Blue on two of those commissions and with the garden club for about 18 years. She said Blue was on the Lakeport Planning Commission in the late 1970s.
Both Blue and her husband had been teachers, Russell said.
“She’s been a joy to work with,” said Russell, who reported that Blue is now living in a nursing home.
Russell said she was pleased to see that the renaming wouldn’t take five years to do, as that’s how long it took to complete the path project in the Parks and Recreation Commission.
“It was a real big thing for Ann to do,” said Russell, who along with Susanne Lyons, donated a bench for the path.
City Manager Kevin Ingram noted that, to say Blue walked the path a number of times is an understatement. He said an incredible amount of thought and effort went into the project.
Spurr asked about a new path going through the Lakefront Park now under development.
Ingram said that would be fitting, as he said he didn’t believe Blue saw the path ending in its current form. There is definitely an opportunity to add more paths and pieces to the main path, he added.
Councilwoman Stacey Mattina moved to approve the resolution, which the council approved 5-0.
Email Elizabeth Larson at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.. Follow her on Twitter, @ERLarson, or Lake County News, @LakeCoNews.
MIDDLETOWN, Calif. – The Middletown Area Town Hall’s meeting this week will include nominations for next year’s board members and a discussion and vote regarding bylaws updates.
MATH will meet at 7 p.m. Thursday, Nov. 12, via Zoom. The meeting is open to the public.
To join the Zoom meeting click on this link; the meeting ID is 872 2935 2332. Call in at 888-788-0099.
At 7:10 p.m., District 1 Supervisor Moke Simon will give his monthly update to the group.
At 7:30 p.m., MATH will hold nominations for three board seats for the coming year – one at-large and two representing Middletown proper.
At 7:40 p.m., the group will have a discussion and vote on the clarification to Article 4 Section 1 regarding the board election.
There also will be opportunities for public input and discussion of items on the December agenda.
The MATH Board includes Chair Tom Darms, Vice Chair Sally Peterson, Secretary Paul Baker, and at-large members Rosemary Córdova and Lisa Kaplan.
MATH – established by resolution of the Lake County Board of Supervisors on Dec. 12, 2006 – is a municipal advisory council serving the residents of Anderson Springs, Cobb, Coyote Valley (including Hidden Valley Lake), Long Valley and Middletown.
For more information email This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it..
Email Elizabeth Larson at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.. Follow her on Twitter, @ERLarson, or Lake County News, @LakeCoNews.
CLEARLAKE, Calif. – The Clearlake City Council will hold a special Monday meeting to discuss the purchase of new radios for the police department and the sale of a city property.
The council meeting will convene at 11 a.m. Monday, Nov. 9.
Because of the county’s shelter in place order, Clearlake City Hall remains closed to the public, however, the virtual meeting will be broadcast live on the city's YouTube channel or the Lake County PEG TV YouTube Channel. Community members also can participate via Zoom.
Comments and questions can be submitted in writing for City Council consideration by sending them to Administrative Services Director/City Clerk Melissa Swanson at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.. You can also visit the city’s town hall site and submit written comments at https://www.opentownhall.com/portals/327/forum_home. Identify the subject you wish to comment on in your email’s subject line or in your town hall submission.
To give the council adequate time to review your questions and comments, please submit your written comments prior to 10 a.m. on Monday, Nov. 9.
On the agenda is a request from Police Chief Andrew White to purchase 42 mobile and six portable radios, with accessories, from Command Communications in an amount not to exceed $47,175. Staff also is seeking authorization to trade-in the mobile radios being replaced.
Also on the agenda is consideration of the sale of city-owned property at 15886 18th Ave.
City Manager Alan Flora’s report to the council explained that in 2018 the city was deeded a 1,022-square-foot, two-bedroom, one-bath single-family dwelling with an attached garage on 18th Avenue due to a default on a Community Development Block Grant Home Rehabilitation loan by the homeowner.
The original loan amount was $117,000 at 3 percent interest which would have matured in 2023, Flora said.
Flora said staff placed the home up for sale on the open real estate market and received several offers.
“The proposed sale price is $130,000, recouping the City’s loan funds that were previously Defaulted,” Flora said in his report.
Email Elizabeth Larson at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.. Follow her on Twitter, @ERLarson, or Lake County News, @LakeCoNews.
LAKE COUNTY, Calif. – A Clearlake woman and two children were injured in a solo-vehicle crash on Highway 29 on Monday evening.
The California Highway Patrol’s Clear Lake Area office said the crash occurred at 6:50 p.m. on Monday.
Susanna E. Wright, 39, was traveling southbound on Highway 29 south of Seigler Canyon Road, driving a 2014 Toyota Corolla, the CHP said.
Wright had a 7-year-old girl and a 5-year-old boy seated in the rear of the vehicle. The CHP said Wright was wearing her seat belt but the children were not using safety equipment.
The CHP said Wright allowed her vehicle to travel off the west road edge of the highway. She overcorrected to the left and lost control of her vehicle.
Wright's vehicle traveled off the east roadway edge of Highway 29, hitting an uphill dirt embankment. The CHP said this impact caused her vehicle to overturn, impacting and coming to rest against a tree.
The CHP said Wright and the girl were transported via ambulance to Adventist Health Clear Lake Hospital in Clearlake for treatment. Wright had moderate injuries while the girl had major injuries.
The boy, who also had major injuries, was transported via air ambulance to UCSF Benioff Children's Hospital in Oakland, the CHP said.
Drugs and alcohol are not suspected to have been factors in the wreck, according to the CHP report.
California State Controller Betty T. Yee has published the 2019 self-reported payroll data for fairs, expositions and First 5 commissions on the Government Compensation in California website.
The data cover 3,631 positions and a total of more than $57 million in 2019 wages.
The newly published data include 2,784 positions at 29 fairs and expositions and 847 positions at 38 First 5 commissions.
In Lake County, the First 5 Lake Commission is reported to have salaries totaling $115,797 and health and retirement contributions totaling $20,741.
The commission’s two paid employees are the executive director, who receives an annual salary of $75,751 and $6,503 in retirement and health, while the secretary receives an annual salary of $40,046, with retirement and health costs totaling $14,238, according to the website. The commission also has nine unpaid board positions.
For 2019, the Lake County Fair, 49th District Agricultural Association, reported a total of 51 employees, with wages totaling $321,131 and retirement and health benefits of $22,648. The top administrative job has a yearly salary of $65,015 and retirement and health benefits of $4,422, plus numerous part-time positions for the fair and seven unpaid board members.
California law requires cities, counties and special districts to annually report compensation data to the State Controller. Controller Yee also maintains and publishes state government and California State University salary data.
No statutory requirement exists for superior courts, UC, community college districts, fairs, expositions, First 5 commissions, or K-12 education providers; their reporting is voluntary.
A list of entities that did not file or filed incomplete reports is available here.
Since the website launched in 2010, it has registered more than 12 million pageviews. The site contains pay and benefit information on more than two million government jobs in California, as reported annually by each entity.
As the chief fiscal officer of California, Controller Yee is responsible for accountability and disbursement of the state’s financial resources. The controller has independent auditing authority over government agencies that spend state funds.
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA – Cooler temperatures and the continued hard work of crews on the fire lines have raised containment on the August Complex South Zone.
The US Forest Service said Sunday that crews on the South Zone of the August Complex completed an additional 6.7 miles of fireline repair Saturday.
This effort combined with recent precipitation contributed to an increase in containment on the 499,827-acre South Zone to 99 percent.
The complex as a whole remained at 1,032,648 acres and 96 percent containment on Sunday, officials said.
It began on Aug. 16 and 17 due to lightning. It’s burning on the Mendocino, Six Rivers and Shasta-Trinity National Forests.
The Forest Service said crews continued fire suppression repair operations around the M4 and M2 roads, Gloyd Slide, Mill Creek and Mendocino Pass.
Rehabilitation work included obliterating berms, providing drainage to prevent erosion, stabilizing landslide-prone areas and repairing roads damaged during suppression activities, officials said.
In addition, the Forest Service said crews completed repair of the Oak Flat Campground, which was used by crews as a spike camp, and it is reopened to the public.
The transition of command of the South Zone to the Mendocino National Forest district fire managers is scheduled for Monday, the Forest Service said.
The Forest Service said fire suppression repair work is slated to continue until winter weather prevents operations.
The entire August Complex is expected by the Forest Service to be fully contained on Dec. 15.
Employment among the nation’s three million post-9/11 veterans was higher from 2014 to 2018 than it was among those who never served in the armed forces, according to a new U.S. Census Bureau report released Tuesday.
In contrast with older veteran groups, such as those from the Vietnam era or Gulf War, post-9/11 veterans encountered very different labor markets after returning from the armed forces. As a result, post-9/11 veterans represent a unique and growing segment of the veteran population and the broader U.S. workforce.
Employment characteristics of post-9/11 veterans
In the 2014-2018 period, about 80 percent of post-9/11 veterans were employed compared with only 75 percent of nonveterans.
Among the employed, post-9/11 veterans were also more likely than nonveterans to work year-round (50 to 52 weeks a year) and full-time (35 hours or more a week). About 81 percent of post-9/11 veterans and 71 percent of nonveterans had year-round, full-time jobs.
Post-9/11 veterans worked longer hours than nonveterans – an average of two hours longer for men (44 hours a week vs. 42) and nearly three hours longer each week for women (40 hours vs. 37 hours).
They were also more likely than nonveterans to work for federal, state, or local governments. For example, 32 percent of post-9/11 male veterans worked in government compared to 10 percent of male nonveterans. In contrast, male nonveterans were more likely to work in the private sector (81 percent vs. 63 percent of post-9/11 veterans).
Post-9/11 veterans earned more than nonveterans depending on their education level: a median $46,000 a year compared to about $35,000 for nonveterans.
Occupations among post-9/11 veterans
Among people employed year-round and full-time, post-9/11 veterans often were overrepresented in only a few occupation groups.
For instance, a greater proportion of veterans than nonveterans were employed in protective service occupations, such as police officer, firefighter and similar jobs.
Post-9/11 veterans also were frequently in installation, maintenance, and repair occupations and less regularly in office and administrative support, sales, and related occupations.
These results are roughly consistent with the notion that post-9/11 veterans seek civilian jobs that utilize their military skills and training.
Occupations among men and women by veteran status
In addition to overall differences in employment between post-9/11 veterans and nonveterans, the proportion of workers in different occupations varied by sex.
The figures below show the percentage of men and women who were post-9/11 veterans and nonveterans employed year-round and full-time in 24 occupation groups and which jobs are more common for each group.
Top occupation groups for men, whether they were post-9/11 veterans or nonveterans, were: management; installation, maintenance, and repair; and production.
However, post-9/11 veteran men were more likely than their nonveteran peers to work in protective service and office and administrative support occupations.
In contrast, a greater percentage of men who never served were employed in construction and extraction occupations and sales and related occupations.
The pattern was similar among women. Post-9/11 veteran and nonveteran women also shared four of the same top occupation groups: office and administrative support, health care practitioners and technical, management, and sales and related.
Among the remaining occupation groups, a larger percentage of post-9/11 veteran women worked in business and financial operations, while more nonveterans worked in educational instruction and library occupations.
Clayton Gumber and Jonathan Vespa are survey statisticians in the Census Bureau’s Social, Economic and Housing Statistics Division.
Motor vehicle crashes are the leading cause of death among children in the United States, and many of these tragedies could have been prevented.
The California Highway Patrol will address this issue with the assistance of a yearlong campaign to ensure children are properly restrained while traveling California’s roadways.
The California Restraint Safety Education and Training, or CARSEAT, IV grant, which provides funding through Sept. 30, 2021, will enable the CHP to present seminars and new parent classes to help reduce the number of deaths of unrestrained and improperly restrained children involved in crashes.
“Passenger safety, especially when it comes to children, is a primary concern for our Department,” CHP Commissioner Warren Stanley said. “Using a correctly installed safety seat that is suitable for the age and size of a child is the best way to keep them safe.”
California law requires a child be properly secured in a safety seat in the second row of a vehicle, when available, until they are at least 8 years of age.
Children age 8 and older, who are at least 4 feet, 9 inches in height, may ride in the back seat of a vehicle in a properly fitted safety belt.
Children under the age of 2 must ride rear-facing or until they reach 40 pounds or 40 inches in height.
Contact the CHP Area office nearest you for more information about child passenger safety or to schedule a free safety seat inspection.
During the pandemic, classes and seminars are being conducted both online and in-person in accordance with California Department of Public Health guidelines.
In addition to educational efforts, the CHP will conduct enforcement operations concentrating on occupant restraint violations throughout the year, with a special emphasis during the national “Click It or Ticket” campaign, Nov. 9 to 29, 2020.
Funding for this program was provided by a grant from the California Office of Traffic Safety, through the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.
The mission of the CHP is to provide the highest level of safety, service and security.y, Service, and Security.
NORTH COAST, Calif. – Mendocino County Superior Court Presiding Judge Ann Moorman issued an emergency order Sunday closing that county’s courts this week due to COVID-19-related incidents within the court operations.
Courts in Ukiah and Fort Bragg will be closed Monday through Friday, officials said.
Individuals with court dates this week should call their attorney for further information and direction.
District Attorney David Eyster said his office operations including the Victim/Witness offices in Ukiah and Fort Bragg will remain open as much as possible during the week-long court closure.
Because the public entrances to the main courthouse in Ukiah and the Fort Bragg course will be closed by order of Judge Moorman, anybody with urgent business with the DA or his staff should call the DA's main reception in Ukiah at 707-463-4211 and schedule an appointment time, to include an escort into the DA's offices, if appropriate.
For more information visit the Mendocino County Superior Court’s website.
LAKE COUNTY, Calif. – During a special Monday night meeting, the Lakeport Unified School District Board of Trustees decided to move into a new phase of hybrid learning that will have students back on campus starting early in January.
In a split decision – with board members Dan Buffalo, Jennifer Hanson and Phil Kirby voting yes, and Jeannie Markham and Carly Alvord voting no – the board decided after a three-hour discussion to enter hybrid learning, which is “stage two” of the Lake County Return to School Continuum Plan, at the start of the new semester, after Christmas break.
Markham and Alvord, who argued that it was in the best interests of students to get back to campus sooner rather than later, favored the start of hybrid learning on Nov. 30, after Thanksgiving but before the holiday break.
Nov. 30 was the date that district Superintendent Jill Falconer told the board was the date when staff would be fully prepared to switch from distance learning to the hybrid model, which will include having some students on campus at all times.
“As I’ve said all along, we’ll be ready when we’re ready,” said Falconer.
That’s also the date that the Kelseyville Unified School District announced last week that it plans to move to the hybrid model.
As proposed in Lakeport Unified’s case, students would be on campus for certain days of the week. Falconer said students would have “grab and go” breakfasts and lunches on the days they were on campus, and would have additional meals sent home with them for the other days when they’re learning at home.
During the course of the meeting, the board would hear about the challenges that the pandemic and its impact on school is creating for children, their families and teachers.
Absenteeism is up, there is an increase in failing grades, and students are enduring emotional stress and burnout from the combination of trying to learn online while being isolated from their social networks at school.
Alvord, who noted her own challenges with her children, said other parents have shared with her their struggles – such as a child developing an eating disorder and others suffering from increased anxiety and depression as a result of being separated from their classmates and teachers.
Like the majority of Lake County’s school districts, Lakeport Unified has been in the distance learning phase one of the Return to School Continuum Plan since the start of the year.
That phase calls for staff to be on campus with only a limited number of students – including those in special education – having class in-person, while the rest of the students participate in instruction virtually. There is no athletic competition or practice.
Lucerne Elementary and Upper Lake Unified schools started the school year with in-person instruction and have kept their campuses open thanks to numerous modifications and enhanced safety protocols.
Falconer said Lakeport Unified’s staffers are still finalizing their plan for the transition, and because it involves ongoing negotiations with their employee bargaining units, the plan wasn’t ready to be made public for Tuesday’s meeting.
Growing rates for absenteeism, lower grades
As an introduction to the Monday night discussion, Falconer presented data to the board showing attendance and engagement which helps monitor how students are performing.
“I warn you, the numbers are not great but we are in the middle of a pandemic,” said Falconer.
For Lakeport Elementary School, in the 2019-20 academic year, the school reported a 9.5 percent rate for chronic absenteeism, which is defined as missing 10 percent or more of school days in an academic year. For this year, that number has risen to 24.4 percent.
For Terrace Middle School, Falconer said the absentee rates rose from 8.3 percent last year to 35.8 percent this year, and at Clear Lake High School, the steepest increase was noted – 3.8 percent last year to 24.1 percent this year.
At the Lakeport Alternative Education Center, however, the numbers Falconer showed are encouraging: the 15.1-percent absentee rate reported in the 2019-20 school year has dropped to 2.1 percent this year.
“Our alternative education program kids are really engaging in distancing learning,” Falconer said.
She said the district’s student and family advocate continues to conduct several home visits a day to try to remove barriers to students’ engagement and attendance. “It remains a challenge.”
In a breakdown of subgroups, which can be seen below, Falconer said some groups of students are having higher absenteeism. Native American students have the highest absenteeism at the elementary, middle and high schools, with socioeconomically disadvantaged students, special education students and Hispanic students also registering high absentee numbers.
Regarding academic progress, the first quarter showed a sharp rise in the number of D and F grades given at the middle and high schools, according to Falconer’s report.
At Terrace Middle School, there were 175 Ds or Fs given in the 2019-20 first quarter, compared to 351 this year. At Clear Lake High School, the numbers are worse: 190 Ds or Fs in the first quarter of last year versus 436 this year, Falconer reported.
Falconer pointed out that chronic absenteeism goes hand in hand with lower grades.
The district contacted parents to ask about their preferences, and Falconer said that 75 percent of parents wanted hybrid learning – and soon – while 25 percent wanted to stay on distance learning.
Teachers share concerns
Markham, a retired teacher, said she believed it would be easier to make the transition from distance learning to the hybrid model between the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays. She suggested students and teachers could ease into it rather than having to hit the ground running in January.
However, teachers like Catherine Dunne believed that coming back between the holidays would be challenging.
Clear Lake High School woodshop teacher John Moorhead said he is in no hurry to have students come back for in-person instruction. “It’s another wrinkle in a landscape that is only filled with wrinkles.”
Moorhead said he’s for keeping things the way they are through the end of semester, and maybe into the second semester. Explaining that he’s spoken with his coworkers about the issues, Moorhead noted, “We’re not quite ready for primetime.”
High school biology teacher William Pettus said he and his science colleagues also have serious concerns about moving to the hybrid model due to the inability to properly clean items that are shared – everything from pencils, desks and dividers, to microscopes, beakers and glassware.
“I would love to say we have a solution for this, and we don’t,” Pettus said.
High school special education teacher Cary Stillman explained that she’s doing some in-person teaching now, along with distance learning. Bathrooms, handwashing, going in and out of classrooms and bussing can be handled fairly safely now, but Stillwell said they will become more convoluted as more people are on campus, and they don’t yet have a solution.
Stillman agreed that the mental health of students is imperative, but that they need to come back to school – safely.
School nurse Diane Gunther pointed to growing COVID-19 case numbers across the nation and the state, and said that the Thanksgiving holiday is a big concern nationwide, as it will increase the chance for virus transmissions.
“We need to be on our toes” when transitioning to the hybrid model, Gunther said.
She said she thought the district has been “pretty lucky” in having minimal problems due to some significant situations involving the virus. That’s with a limited number of students on campus, and the risk is likely to increase with more students present.
Board weighs risks, plans separate sports discussion
While Markham said she was anxious to have children back on campus for school, even if only part-time, “Athletics worries me.”
“I share that sentiment,” said Buffalo, noting that it’s a very real risk. “At the same time, athletics is important to the well-being of our students.”
Buffalo said he saw the upcoming holidays as a litmus test for the community and the nation as a whole as far as COVID-19 transmission.
Gunther said that caseload increases generally are seen two weeks after a holiday, followed by hospitalizations and deaths. The biggest case spike in Lake County came exactly two weeks after Labor Day, she added.
Markham said she thought the district needed to transition to hybrid learning on Nov. 30, adding that it won’t accomplish anything to wait until January. “I do think it’s hurting kids to have them not at school.”
“I’m with you,” said Alvord.
Alvord asked Falconer what she would like to see happen.
Falconer deferred, saying she serves at the board’s will and that she and district employees “will make your decision work.”
Buffalo offered the motion to transition to the stage two hybrid model at the start of the calendar year and the next semester, and to give Falconer authority to make changes to that start date if necessary, which the board approved 3-2.
Buffalo thanked the district’s team for their efforts, noting he knows the community wants to move to the hybrid model and the faculty wants to teach students.
At its meeting next week, the board also will have a discussion on sports, as high school Athletic Director Milo Meyer received news on Monday that state sports officials are set to let competitions for sports including football, volleyball, cross country and wrestling begin in December.
“The school district is going to have to make a decision” as to whether or not to allow sports, Meyer told the board.
He said coaches will need guidelines and parents will have to arrange for physicals for their children as the usual free physicals at the school won’t be available this year. There also will be questions about transportation and scheduling.
Falconer also noted that the Lake County Return to School Continuum Plan allows sports only if the school district is in stage three.
Email Elizabeth Larson at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.. Follow her on Twitter, @ERLarson, or Lake County News, @LakeCoNews.
LAKEPORT, Calif. – The Lakeport Unified School District Board will hold a special meeting on Monday to consider when to move into the next phase of the county’s Return to School Continuum Plan.
The meeting will take place at 6 p.m. Monday, Nov. 9.
It will take place in the Marge Alakszay Center at 250 Lange St., with seating arranged to ensure the requirements of social distancing.
Community members also can participate in the meeting via Zoom.
The main item of business will be the board’s consideration of approval for the start date for hybrid learning, which is Stage 2 of the Lake County Return to School Continuum Plan.
Lakeport Unified, like the majority of Lake County’s school districts, started the new school year in distance learning mode due to the challenges of COVID-19.
Documents for the meeting did not give a proposed date for starting Stage 2.
Email Elizabeth Larson at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.. Follow her on Twitter, @ERLarson, or Lake County News, @LakeCoNews.
In the early days of the pandemic, many people hoped the coronavirus would simply fade away. Some argued that it would disappear on its ownwith the summer heat. Others claimed that herd immunity would kick in once enough people had been infected. But none of that has happened.
A combination of public health efforts to contain and mitigate the pandemic – from rigorous testing and contact tracing to social distancing and wearing masks – have been proven to help. Given that the virus has spread almost everywhere in the world, though, such measures alone can’t bring the pandemic to an end. All eyes are now turned to vaccine development, which is being pursued at unprecedented speed.
Yet experts tell us that even with a successful vaccine and effective treatment, COVID-19 may never go away. Even if the pandemic is curbed in one part of the world, it will likely continue in other places, causing infections elsewhere. And even if it is no longer an immediate pandemic-level threat, the coronavirus will likely become endemic – meaning slow, sustained transmission will persist. The coronavirus will continue to cause smaller outbreaks, much like seasonal flu.
The history of pandemics is full of such frustrating examples.
Once they emerge, diseases rarely leave
Whether bacterial, viral or parasitic, virtually every disease pathogen that has affected people over the last several thousand years is still with us, because it is nearly impossible to fully eradicate them.
The only disease that has been eradicated through vaccination is smallpox. Mass vaccination campaigns led by the World Health Organization in the 1960s and 1970s were successful, and in 1980, smallpox was declared the first – and still, the only – human disease to be fully eradicated.
So success stories like smallpox are exceptional. It is rather the rule that diseases come to stay.
Take, for example, pathogens like malaria. Transmitted via parasite, it’s almost as old as humanity and still exacts a heavy disease burden today: There were about 228 million malaria cases and 405,000 deaths worldwide in 2018. Since 1955, global programs to eradicate malaria, assisted by the use of DDT and chloroquine, brought some success, but the disease is still endemic in many countries of the Global South.
Add to this mix relatively younger pathogens, such as HIV and Ebola virus, along with influenza and coronaviruses including SARS, MERS and SARS-CoV-2 that causes COVID-19, and the overall epidemiological picture becomes clear. Research on the global burden of disease finds that annual mortality caused by infectious diseases – most of which occurs in the developing world – is nearly one-third of all deaths globally.
Today, in an age of global air travel, climate change and ecological disturbances, we are constantly exposed to the threat of emerging infectious diseases while continuing to suffer from much older diseases that remain alive and well.
Once added to the repertoire of pathogens that affect human societies, most infectious diseases are here to stay.
Plague caused past pandemics – and still pops up
Even infections that now have effective vaccines and treatments continue to take lives. Perhaps no disease can help illustrate this point better than plague, the single most deadly infectious disease in human history. Its name continues to be synonymous with horror even today.
Plague is caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis. There have been countless local outbreaks and at least three documented plague pandemics over the last 5,000 years, killing hundreds of millions of people. The most notorious of all pandemics was the Black Death of the mid-14th century.
Yet the Black Death was far from being an isolated outburst. Plague returned every decade or even more frequently, each time hitting already weakened societies and taking its toll during at least six centuries. Even before the sanitary revolution of the 19th century, each outbreak gradually died down over the course of months and sometimes years as a result of changes in temperature, humidity and the availability of hosts, vectors and a sufficient number of susceptible individuals.
Some societies recovered relatively quickly from their losses caused by the Black Death. Others never did. For example, medieval Egypt could not fully recover from the lingering effects of the pandemic, which particularly devastated its agricultural sector. The cumulative effects of declining populations became impossible to recoup. It led to the gradual decline of the Mamluk Sultanate and its conquest by the Ottomans within less than two centuries.
That very same state-wrecking plague bacterium remains with us even today, a reminder of the very long persistence and resilience of pathogens.
Hopefully COVID-19 will not persist for millennia. But until there’s a successful vaccine, and likely even after, no one is safe. Politics here are crucial: When vaccination programs are weakened, infections can come roaring back. Just look at measles and polio, which resurge as soon as vaccination efforts falter.
Given such historical and contemporary precedents, humanity can only hope that the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 will prove to be a tractable and eradicable pathogen. But the history of pandemics teaches us to expect otherwise.