- Elizabeth Larson
- Posted On
Lake County health officials report on surging COVID-19 caseload
LAKE COUNTY, Calif. — A week after the Board of Supervisors unanimously passed a resolution urging all community members to wear masks in indoor public settings, Lake County’s COVID-19 case rate has doubled and shows no sign of slowing.
“I know we would all like to believe that we’re through the COVID-19 pandemic and that it’s all behind us. But unfortunately it isn’t,” acting Public Health Officer Dr. Charlie Evans, an emergency room physician of 37 years from Sonoma County, told the Board of Supervisors during its Tuesday meeting.
Last week, Supervisor Jessica Pyska presented the indoor masking resolution to the board, prompted by a growing caseload of 17 per 100,000 over a seven-day average.
On Tuesday, the California Department of Public Health dashboard showed that the same metric had jumped to 35 per 100,000 over a seven-day average, remaining the highest such rate in the state.
Epidemiologist Sarah Marikos told the board Tuesday that the county’s caseload is even higher — 50 per 100,000 — when taking out the seven-day average.
Marikos also reported that Lake County’s testing positivity rate, which had fallen to a low of about 1% in June, has now risen to 17.4%, the highest the county has had during the pandemic so far. At the same time, the overall state testing positivity rate has grown from 1% to 6%.
Lake County also had its 65th COVID-19 death within the past week, Marikos said.
Marikos presented an epicurve graph showing that Lake County’s current case numbers now have surpassed December’s numbers and are approaching those recorded in January, when the surge hit its peak.
During the past week, there were 250 confirmed cases, the third-highest week for cases in Lake County since the pandemic began and nearly twice the cases reported the previous week. Marikos said she wouldn’t be surprised if by next week she’s reporting nearly 300 cases for the week.
The 20 to 44 age group continues to have the highest percentage of cases — 51%, Marikos said.
Of the Lake County residents who have been fully vaccinated — 28,548 — Marikos said 68, or 0.238%, have tested positive for COVID-19.
People who are unvaccinated are about seven times more likely to be infected, she said.
Marikos said the Delta variant is spreading and is present in every region of the state. In June, the Delta variant accounted for about 50% of sequenced specimens, while now it’s closer to 80%.
Statewide, in mid-June, Marikos said there were 150 hospitalizations a day in the state; that’s now climbed to 500.
She said recent studies in the United Kingdom, Canada, Scotland and the United States have looked at second dose vaccine effectiveness versus the Delta variant.
“This is really, really great news,” said Marikos, explaining that the vaccines are 96% effective in preventing hospitalization and 87 to 88% effective in preventing symptomatic disease.
Marikos said 51.7% of Lake County residents are fully vaccinated, compared to 63% of Californians. About 58% of people ages 18 to 49 are not vaccinated.
Lake County’s overall vaccination rate is only improving by about 1% a week, Marikos noted.
She said vaccinating will be critical in preventing new infections in late summer and early fall.
‘A house on fire’
Pointing to the information Marikos presented, Evans, making his first appearance at a board meeting, told the supervisors, “We really have a house on fire and it’s time that we all huddled together and put that fire out. Unlike a year ago, we now have the tools to do that.”
Evans said the United States has an abundance of vaccine and personal protective equipment, in contrast to Kenya, where only 2% of the population are vaccinated. He founded a clinic in Kenya 30 years ago and he’s going there next week to do some work.
As for why Lake County is leading the state in infection rates, Evans said he believes there are many factors. The surge started in the middle of June as the masking mandate was released for vaccinated individuals. Those who are not vaccinated are still requested to mask while indoors but he said that hasn’t been taking place, and Evans emphasized the value of masking.
Lake County’s vaccination rate also is impacting the case rate. Evans said the 18 to 49 age group is only 35% vaccinated, and those individuals are out and active in the community and getting infected.
He said they don’t know for sure how many infections are the Delta variant. “With time we will.”
Speaking about variants, Evans said the alpha variant from England, also known as B.1.1.7, which had caused havoc for parts of Europe as well as big infection rates in Michigan and Minnesota, didn’t impact the rest of the United States as severely as expected.
The alpha variant was 40 to 65% more aggressive than the mother virus. The Delta variant, Evans added, has 1,000 times the viral load of the mother virus.
As long as there are unvaccinated people, Evans said there will be variants.
“I know we’re all fed up with masking and children at home and isolating but in Lake County we’re facing one of the biggest surges we’ve yet seen. If we do nothing the situation will devolve and we will see additional unnecessary death,” Evans said.
To illustrate that point, he said last weekend both of Lake County’s hospitals were at capacity, including for ICU and med surg beds. “We’re already at that point of critical overload.”
He suggested businesses keep protective shields in place, continue to offer hand sanitizer and social distancing signage. Patrons should continue to mask until infection rates drop significantly.
“There is a clear path out of this pandemic and we all know what the answer is: It’s vaccination,” he said.
He addressed myths about vaccination as described in a statement this week from the Rural Association of Northern California Health Officers, and explained that the COVID-19 vaccine is more effective than that created for polio.
“COVID-19 is looking for hosts who are not yet vaccinated. And I'm sure if you’re not yet vaccinated, it will find you,” he said.
Pyska asked Evans about guidance on how to carry out large events that are planned in the coming months. Evans said he strongly discourages any large indoor functions, and said outdoor conditions are safer.
During public comment, Randall Cole, who acknowledged he was unvaccinated, recounted getting COVID-19 from an ill friend at the start of July. He ended up spending two weeks in the ICU.
“People have free will. They can choose whether they want to be vaccinated or not,” Cole said, adding masking should be required, whether people are vaccinated or not.
Leonardo Rodriguez, the student trustee on the Mendocino College board, said COVID-19 has completely thrown off so many students. In a county that’s only half vaccinated and with the surge, he suggested that maybe schools should not be reopened yet.
Rodriguez asked those who won’t get vaccinated to think of the community and others.
Evans also responded to statements from several community members questioning vaccines and testing, in particular, PCR tests.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said last week that, after Dec. 31, it will withdraw the request to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for emergency use of its own CDC 2019-Novel CoronavirusReal-Time RT-PCR Diagnostic Panel, first introduced in February 2020.
The CDC is encouraging labs to consider adopting methods that can test for both influenza and COVID-19 to save both time and money as the nation heads into flu season.
That change has been attributed to many other tests being available and, separately, FDA officials said that agency hasn’t issued a statement questioning PCR test result reliability in general.
Evans said PCR tests are used in many different modalities. “It’s an extremely sensitive test. It tests the DNA of the virus. The only time it falters is when the test is not administered correctly.”
He said it’s been a lifesaving test that has allowed them to detect COVID-19 in numerous individuals.
As for one speaker’s assertion that officials were urging people to rush into being vaccinated, Evans said it’s more than a year into the pandemic, with vaccines available for nine months.
He said he had a patient last week with respiratory failure due to COVID-19. As he prepared her for the ICU, she asked if she could be vaccinated. Evans said he told her it was too late.
“We’re not rushing into anything here with the vaccines,” he said, noting he’s lost a family member to the illness.
He urged people to be vaccinated, wear masks and wash their hands.
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