- Lake County News reports
- Posted On
California’s population grows but growth rate declines; Lake County population declines
California’s population increased by 141,300 people between July 1, 2018, and July 1, 2019, to total 39.96 million, according to official population estimates released recently by the state Department of Finance.
This represents a growth rate of 0.35 percent, down from 0.57 percent for the prior 12 months – the two lowest recorded growth rates in state population since 1900.
The report showed that, although natural increase was a significant source of growth in the state, 15 counties – including Lake, experienced natural decreases.
In addition to Lake, the counties that had natural decreases included Alpine, Amador, Butte, Calaveras, Inyo, Mariposa, Nevada, Plumas, Shasta, Sierra, Siskiyou, Tehama, Trinity, and Tuolumne. Natural decreases in Amador, Plumas, and Tehama counties were offset by positive net migration.
Since the April 2010 census, California's population has grown at an annualized rate of 0.76 percent. Reasons for the recent decline in population growth include fewer births, increased deaths associated with an aging population, lower international migration, and higher domestic outmigration.
Natural increase – births minus deaths – added 180,800 people to the state over the period with 452,200 births and 271,400 deaths.
Births were down from 461,400 in the year ending July 1, 2018, while deaths were up from 270,600 in the preceding year.
The gains from natural increase were offset mostly by losses in net migration – total migration into the state minus total migration out.
Though net international migration added population during this period, negative domestic net migration outweighed those gains, resulting in an overall net migration loss of 39,500 residents. This marked the first time since the 2010 Census that California had more people leaving the state than moving in from abroad or other states (net migration was also negative during 1993-96 and 2005-10).
California’s 58 counties range in size from Alpine County, with just over 1,100 residents, to Los Angeles County with over 10 million residents. Inland counties had high population growth rates during this period, continuing a trend that started in 2016.
San Joaquin, Merced, and Placer counties each grew by 1.4 percent or more. Most urban coastal counties gained population at a very slow pace during this period, while several coastal counties lost population.
Two counties, Los Angeles and Ventura, had a population increase in 2017 to 2018 followed by population decrease from 2018 to 2019, both due to domestic net migration losses.
Smaller counties in more remote areas of California either lost population or grew very little during this period, with the exception of areas surrounding Butte County due to the impact of the 2018 Camp fire – the most destructive wildfire in state history that destroyed more than 14,600 housing units and displaced an estimated 35,700 people.
Most people impacted by the Camp fire relocated to nearby cities in Butte or surrounding counties. Estimates show a significant population increase in six nearby counties: Colusa, Glenn, Plumas, Sutter, Tehama and Yuba.
Four counties in this area – Sutter, Glenn, Tehama and Yuba – were listed in the top ten counties with the highest population growth rates. Butte County lost an estimated net 10,400 residents as a result of the Camp fire.
Highlights of the July 1, 2019 county population report include:
– The state’s 10largest counties were Los Angeles, San Diego, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, Santa Clara, Alameda, Sacramento, Contra Costa, and Fresno. Each had over one million residents. These ten counties represented 72 percent of California’s population. Of these counties, Fresno, Riverside and Sacramento counties had positive population growth from both net international migration and net domestic migration. Two of the counties, Alameda and Contra Costa, had net domestic losses but overall positive net migration. Los Angeles, Orange, Santa Barbara, Santa Clara, and San Diego counties had negative net migration even with gains from net international flows.
– Riverside and San Bernardino counties posted the highest numeric population gains, and accounted for 29 percent of the state's growth during this period. Population growth in San Bernardino County (18,710) was due primarily to natural increase, while Riverside’s source of growth (22,740) was largely from domestic and international migration.
– Population growth rates ranged from a high of 2.21 percent in Sutter County to a low of -4.57 percent in Butte County. Twenty-two counties posted population losses.
– Glenn, Merced, Placer, San Benito, San Joaquin and Sutter counties had the largest percentage increases in population, each growing by 1.4 percent or more. Sutter and Glenn counties received additional population due to shifts related to the Camp Fire in Butte County in 2018.
Population estimates produced by the Department of Finance are mandated by the California Constitution and various codes.
The population estimates are developed using aggregate data from a variety of sources, including birth and death counts provided by the Department of Public Health, number of driver's licenses and driver’s license address change data from the Department of Motor Vehicles, housing unit data from local governments, school enrollment data from the Department of Education, and federal income tax return data from the U.S. Internal Revenue Service.