LAKE COUNTY, Calif. – The forecast is showing that the year will wrap up with drier, warmer weather.
The National Weather Service said dry weather returns from Thursday through Saturday with milder temperatures.
There also is the potential for north winds with gusts of up to 30 miles per hour on Thursday and milder wind conditions on Friday.
The forecast calls for a dry start to the new year, with warmer temperatures for New Year’s week.
The specific Lake County forecast calls for predominantly dry and clear conditions through New Year’s Day, with the exception of Sunday, when there is a chance of showers.
Daytime temperatures are forecast to rise from the high 40s to the high 50s over the course of the next week, with nighttime temperatures ranging from the low to high 30s.
Email Elizabeth Larson at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.. Follow her on Twitter, @ERLarson, or Lake County News, @LakeCoNews.
LOWER LAKE, Calif. – More than 250 people visited Anderson Marsh State Historic Park during the 30th annual “Christmas at the Ranch” open house on Saturday, Dec. 14.
Santa was on hand to greet children of all ages, guests sang Christmas carols accompanied by local musicians and were treated to hot drinks and baked goodies, all courtesy of the Anderson Marsh Interpretive Association.
AMIA is the nonprofit association cooperating with the California Department of Parks and Recreation to promote educational activities at the park.
For information about Anderson Marsh State Historic Park, AMIA and how you can help, go to www.andersonmarsh.org or contact AMIA at either This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. or 707-995-2658.
LAKE COUNTY, Calif. – This month the California Transportation Commission, or CTC, allocated more than $200 million for 27 fix-it-first highway projects and $42 million for 43 transit, bike and pedestrian projects that are partially funded by Senate Bill 1, or SB 1, the Road Repair and Accountability Act of 2017.
That includes $5.7 million for two Lake County projects.
“Californians expect their transportation system to be well maintained, efficient and multimodal,” said Caltrans Director Toks Omishakin. “This funding will keep us safely moving motorists, bicyclists, pedestrians and transit users across the state.”
The 27 SB 1 funded SHOPP projects will replace or improve 305 lane miles, 27 bridges, 204 congestion reducing devices, and repair 32 culverts to prevent flooding on highways.
In Lake County, $1.1 million has been allocated for a traffic management system elements project that will improve traffic monitoring and data transmission on Highway 20 at Red Rock Road, Del Way and Highway 53, on Highway 29 at Lake Street, Main Street, Wardlaw Street, Butts Canyon Road, Hartmann Road, Highway 53, Main Street, Lee Barr Drive and Live Oak Drive, on Highway 53 at Dam Road, 18th Avenue, Lakeshore Drive, Polk Avenue, Olympic Avenue and Ogulin Canyon Road, and on Highway 175 at Red Hills Road, Emerford Road, Bottle Rock Road, Brookhill Road and Dry Creek Cutoff.
In addition, a $4.6 million traffic management system elements project will improve traffic monitoring and data transmission on Highway 20 at George's Last Change, Bridge Arbor, Government, Nice/Lucerne Roundabout, Rosemont Drive and Clearlake Oaks maintenance yard, on Highway 29 at Seigler Canyon Road, Point Lakeview, Red Hills Road, Cole Creek, Highland Springs, Soda Bay Road, Caltrans Lakeport maintenance Yard and Highway 29 traffic monitoring station, on Highway 101 at Old River Road and Hopland, on Highway 175 at McDowell Creek, Woolridge Ranch Road and north of Red Hills Road, and on Highway 281 at Fairway Drive, in Lake and Mendocino counties.
Other area projects allocated SB 1 funds include a $38.8 million bridge project that will replace Panther Creek Bridge No. 01-0025 and Hunter Creek Bridge No. 01-0003 on US Highway 101 near Klamath in Del Norte County.
The CTC also approved an allocation of more than $42 million for 35 locally administered Active Transportation Program projects, 16 of which received $8.3 million in funding from SB 1. These projects range from improving sidewalks and bicycle lanes to creating safer routes to school for children who ride their bicycles or walk to school.
Additionally, more than $21 million of SB 1 funding was allocated to the Local Partnership Program to help match road and transit investments that local communities have made in their region through voter-approved transportation tax measures.
Since SB 1 was signed into law April 2017, Caltrans has repaired or replaced 299 bridges and paved nearly 2,400 lane miles of the state highway system. Caltrans has completed 176 SB 1 projects to date, with 455 projects in the works statewide.
SB 1 invests approximately $5 billion per year to fix roads, freeways and bridges in communities across California as well as strategically investing in transit. These funds are split equally between state and local projects and will allow Caltrans to fix more than 17,000 lane miles of pavement, 500 bridges and 55,000 culverts on the state highway system by 2027.
SHOPP is the state highway system’s "fix-it-first" program that funds safety improvements, emergency repairs, highway preservation and operational highway upgrades. A significant portion of the funding for this program comes from SB 1.
Caltrans is committed to conducting its business in a fully transparent manner and detailing its progress to the public. For complete details on SB 1, visit http://www.rebuildingca.ca.gov/.
The California Department of Fish and Wildlife reminds the public it is still illegal to collect or possess roadkill animals and violators could face citation, even after Jan. 1, 2020.
SB 395 - Chapter 869 (Archuleta), also known as the "Wildlife Traffic Safety Act," was enacted with the intent to eventually make available for utilization the roadkill meat of deer, elk, pronghorn antelope or wild pig.
However, the legislative language does not permit the general public collection and utilization of roadkill animals, but rather authorizes development of a program for what the bill describes as "salvageable wild game meat."
Such a program is not yet in place, contrary to many news articles and social media traffic.
SB 395 only authorizes the California Fish and Game Commission to adopt regulations, in consultation with the California Department of Transportation, California Highway Patrol and the California Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment, to establish such a salvageable wild game meat utilization program.
It would mandate any such program to include a permit and a reporting process.
"Many Californians think it will be legal to possess and utilize roadkill on Jan. 1, which is the technical effective date of the Wildlife Traffic Safety Act, but that's not the case," said David Bess, CDFW Deputy Director and Chief of the Law Enforcement Division. "There is no collection or utilization program in place. We are trying to avoid any confusion by misinformed citizens who think it is lawful to collect roadkill animals."
In addition, SB 395 authorizes CDFW to create a roadkill reporting database to help wildlife managers identify the places where wildlife/vehicle collisions are most common.
Data from such a reporting system could support wildlife conservation efforts conducted through regional conservation investment strategies. That program is also not yet in place.
However, the University of California, Davis has a public reporting system called the California Roadkill Observation System, or CROS, that is currently operational.
Any citizen can contribute roadkill data and photos to CROS, either anonymously or as a registered user.
Caribou, North America’s wild reindeer, have lives apart from their famous role on Christmas Eve.
To learn more about how these Arctic antler-bearers spend the other 364 days of the year, we talked to USGS caribou expert Dr. Layne Adams, who has studied these animals for more than 35 years.
Caribou, North America’s wild reindeer, are much more interesting than their famous holiday role suggests. Reindeer and caribou (Rangifer tarandus) are large, cold-adapted, herding herbivores related to deer, elk and moose.
To learn more about the biology behind these not-so “mythical” Arctic creatures, we turn to our colleagues at the USGS Alaska Science Center who conduct a wide variety of earth- and ecological-science surveys throughout our northernmost state.
We asked USGS caribou (and large mammal) expert Layne Adams, Ph.D., about the lives of caribou during the other 364 days of the year not known as Christmas. Adams has studied caribou, other hoofed animals, and their predators in Denali National Park and elsewhere in Alaska for more than 35 years, helping land managers understand the best ways to manage these important species. Adams, a wildlife biologist, did an online chat with the Washington Post a few years ago that we wanted to share with you:
Here are other questions about reindeer that Dr. Adams answered.
Why are reindeer sometimes called caribou and caribou sometimes called reindeer?
“Reindeer” and “caribou” are two common names for the same species - Rangifer tarandus, which occurs throughout the circumpolar North.
“Reindeer” is the common name for Rangifer in Europe and Asia, whereas “caribou” is the North American name.
The name “caribou” is a French derivative of a Native American word that means snow shoveler, which is a reference to the fact that caribou are often pawing through the snow to find food underneath.
What are reindeer or caribou?
Caribou and reindeer are part of the deer family — related to deer, moose, and elk. They are the only deer species where males and females both grow antlers. Females and young males have antlers that are similar in size, but males older than 2 or 3 years have much larger antlers.
Caribou and reindeer have been around for more than a million years; their ancestors lived at the same time as now-extinct woolly mammoths and saber-toothed cats.
Caribou are migratory and widely distributed across northern North America, ranging from Alaska and the Canadian High Arctic islands to the mountains and boreal forests of the Canadian southern provinces.
What are domesticated reindeer?
Reindeer were domesticated across northern Europe and Asia several thousand years ago and became the basis of herding cultures in those regions.
Domesticated reindeer are also found in Alaska and Canada. A little more than a century ago, 1300 reindeer were imported from Siberia to northwest Alaska in an attempt to establish a herding economy among the Native people in the region. At the time, caribou were scarce along the northwest coast of Alaska.
Reindeer herding expanded widely across the west and north coasts of Alaska, as well as into northern Canada, such that around 600,000 domesticated reindeer were present throughout Alaska by the 1930s. During the Great Depression, the reindeer industry in Alaska collapsed and retracted primarily to the Seward Peninsula of northwest Alaska where it continues today.
While the main purpose of domesticated reindeer has been to provide meat and hides to local people, reindeer have been trained to pull sleds by some cultures.
What do they eat?
Caribou forage on a variety of plants throughout the year. During winter, lichens are their most frequently sought food, with shrubs and grass or sedges making up the rest.
On alpine and Arctic tundra ranges, caribou primarily feed on terrestrial lichens, sometimes called reindeer moss, that occur within the low-growing grasses and shrubs that make up the tundra vegetation.
In southern mountain or boreal forest ranges, where caribou winter in deep snow, arboreal lichens that grow on trees are the predominant caribou forage.
During summer, caribou shift to eating a wide variety of green plants including grasses or sedges, growing shrubs, and a variety of small forbs or flowering plants. In some regions, abundant late-summer mushrooms are an important food for caribou.
What do caribou do in the fall and winter?
In the fall, some caribou herds start migrating to their winter ranges. The timing of migration is dictated by cues in changing day length in combination with the onset of snowfall as the long winter begins. Fall is also the breeding season when mature bulls compete for opportunities to breed with females, as the females become receptive.
Arctic caribou generally migrate south to winter ranges along the northern fringe of the boreal forest or onto tundra winter ranges where terrestrial lichens are abundant. Some larger caribou herds migrate long distances of 300-400 miles between their winter ranges and their calving and summer ranges.
Smaller mountain populations migrate out of the higher mountains onto lower elevation tundra and forest ranges, while small boreal forest populations are generally sedentary throughout the year. Once on their winter range, caribou remain there from about early October to late April.
How do they thrive in such cold temperatures?
Caribou are well adapted to living in cold regions and thrive in areas where winter temperatures can reach 70 or 80 degrees below zero. These animals are well insulated with a dense haircoat made up of wooly underfur and hollow guard hair over their entire body (except the very tip of their nose). They also have relatively large, wide hooves for walking and digging through snow.
What do caribou do in the summer?
After the females give birth, caribou generally gather together in large groups to help them better avoid predators and to escape incredibly bothersome mosquitoes and parasitic flies that are abundant in early summer.
The different herds of caribou stay together in the high mountains and along the Alaskan seacoasts, where the winds and cooler temperatures help protect them from summer heat and those pesky insects.
After the number of insects declines in mid-summer, the caribou herds scatter into smaller groups. This is an important time for caribou — they use the time before winter arrives to feed as much as possible on remaining green grasses and sedges, willow leaves, and even mushrooms to gain weight.
How big are calves?
We’ve weighed quite a few newborn calves in Denali and on average they weigh about 17 pounds. Calves are born in May and early June throughout Alaska, with most calves being born in any herd within about a 10-day period.
Caribou cows produce one calf each year and generally begin producing calves when they are 2 to 4 years old depending on their nutritional status.
In small herds, such as the Denali Caribou Herd, calves are subject to intense predation primarily by wolves and grizzly bears — fewer than half survive beyond 2 weeks of age.
In the large, migratory populations, early calf survival is markedly higher because the huge number of calves born over a brief interval overwhelms local predators’ ability to kill as many.
How big are adult caribou?
In Denali National Park, mature adult males average about 500 pounds but can weigh more than 600 pounds. Adult females are about half as big, averaging about 240 pounds (225- to 320-pound range).
In large migratory herds, caribou are smaller, with adult males and females averaging about 400 pounds for males and 200 pounds for females.
How many herds are in Alaska?
There are 32 caribou herds recognized in Alaska, with 7 large migratory populations each numbering from 15,000 to 260,000 animals. These herds currently total about 700,000 animals and account for about 97 percent of the caribou in the State. The remaining 25 herds are much smaller, ranging from about 30 to 3500 animals each, adding up to about another 20,000 caribou.
Overall, Alaska’s caribou population was relatively low in the mid-1970s, numbering around 250,000 statewide. Caribou numbers increased to about 950,000 by the mid-1990s, as a couple of the large herds grew to historically high numbers. Since then, caribou numbers have declined to around 720,000 today. Such wide fluctuations in caribou numbers over the time scale of decades are not unusual.
Can you talk a little more about predators — what eats caribou?
In general, the primary predators of caribou in Alaska are grizzly bears and wolves. Grizzly bears are very effective at killing young caribou calves less than a couple of weeks old, although they also kill older caribou on occasion. Wolves are important predators of both young calves and older caribou. Other caribou predators include black bears, golden eagles, wolverine, and coyotes.
Humans are also important predators of caribou. Caribou are a mainstay of local subsistence in Bush Alaska, and they are a sought-after quarry for other Alaskan residents and sport hunters from all over the world. On average, people harvest about 22,000 caribou each year in Alaska.
Predation affects the number of caribou, particularly in the smaller, more sedentary populations. The large, migratory herds are able to reduce the negative effects of predation to some degree just due to their sheer numbers; the tradeoff is that they are more likely to be affected by the nutritional limitations of their ranges compounded by competition with their herd mates.
Caribou are more vulnerable in deep snow
A main goal of my research has been to understand the interrelationships of caribou and wolves in Denali National Park. For caribou, an important factor that affects how many are killed by wolves is the amount of snow during winter.
In years with less snow, caribou have large expanses of wind-blown, snow-free land to seek their food, and they commonly make it through the winter in good shape. They can also more easily evade wolves because they can run unimpeded across the bare, frozen tundra. During such times, wolves primarily kill caribou that are old, injured, not in good shape, or just plain unlucky. During low snow years, when caribou are more evasive, we’ve found that wolf packs tend to be smaller.
But the balance shifts in favor of wolves when there is a lot of snow.
Caribou then have a harder time finding enough to eat because they have to dig through deep or crusted snow or must seek food on wind-blown high mountain ridges where there is little snow, but also little food.
The caribou also have a harder time escaping from wolves in deep snow. In fact, wolves will sometimes chase caribou into areas with deep snow where the caribou are very vulnerable even if they are in good shape.
In heavy snow years, wolf packs tend to be bigger and some packs produce more pups. In contrast, our caribou research shows that after severe winters, not only are young (2-4 years old) and very old cows (≥ 14 years old) less likely to breed, but calves born are lighter, grow more slowly, and are more likely to be killed by predators in the weeks after they are born.
Is climate change affecting caribou?
We know from our studies that weather may be the most important factor affecting the yearly cycles of caribou and their predators.
However, the longer-term effects of climate change are much more complex. Unlike polar bears, which are highly dependent on sea ice that is declining due to warming temperatures, caribou are likely influenced by a wide variety of factors that will be affected by a warming climate, and some effects will be positive and some negative.
For example, with a warming climate, we expect the growing season to be longer and provide caribou with green, nutritious forage earlier and for a longer period of time for a positive effect. Our recent studies on Alaska’s Arctic Coastal Plain have been geared toward understanding how a warming climate is affecting the plants that caribou eat during summer; this information will help managers forecast how future habitat conditions might affect the well-being of these large herbivores.
However, we have also done research that indicates that with increasing temperatures we can expect more fires on boreal forest winter ranges for caribou that will likely result in a reduced availability of lichen, their primary winter forage, which tends to not grow back for about 70 to 80 years after a fire.
The overall effect of a warming climate on caribou will be dependent on how these and many other climate-related effects interact and that is very difficult to predict. Further, responses to climate change are likely to differ among the various caribou populations across North America.
What does the current caribou research conducted by USGS focus on?
We are currently investigating how caribou select summer habitat based upon forage quality and weather on Alaska’s Arctic Coastal Plain. This information is important for evaluating the effects of current and proposed oil development there, as well as improving our understanding of the potential responses of those caribou populations to a warming climate.
New laws approved by the California Legislature in 2019 will affect roadway safety in several ways, including increased distracted driving penalties, peace officer use of deadly force, bicycle turning movements at intersections, wildlife salvage permits, and motor carrier permit rules.
In support of the department’s mission of providing the highest level of safety, service, and security, the California Highway Patrol is highlighting several new laws passed this year.
Except where noted, these laws are effective Jan. 1, 2020.
License points for distracted driving (AB 47, Daly): Current law prohibits a person from driving a motor vehicle while using a wireless telephone in a handheld manner; if found in violation, the offense is punishable by a fine. However, beginning July 1, 2021, this new law will levy an additional penalty on a driver found in violation of California’s hands-free law: a point will be added on to a driver’s record for each hands-free violation occurring within 36 months of a prior conviction for the same offense.
Peace officer use of deadly force (AB 392, Weber): Beginning Jan. 1, 2020, this new law revises the standards for use of deadly force by peace officers. The use of deadly force by a peace officer is justifiable when the officer reasonably believes it is necessary. Section 835a of the Penal Code amends the reasonable force standard to “objectively reasonable force.”
Law enforcement: use of deadly force: training: policies (SB 230, Caballero): With the enactment of AB 392, this new law requires law enforcement agencies to rewrite use of force policy and provide mandatory training to all peace officers in order to comply with the new law.
Traffic control devices: bicycles (AB 1266, Rivas): This new law allows bicycles to travel straight through a right or left-hand turn-only lane while at an intersection, if an official traffic control device indicates the movement is permitted. The Department of Transportation would be required to develop standards to implement the provisions.
Transportation: omnibus bill (AB 1810, Committee on Transportation): Amends Section 34621 of the California Vehicle Code (CVC) allowing motor carriers of property to continue operating for 30 days past their permit expiration date, under specified circumstances. This legislation also provided for an amendment to Section 23229 CVC. California law will now prohibit the consumption of cannabis, in any manner, by passengers in a bus, taxicab, pedicab, limousine, housecars, or camper. This exemption is now only applicable to alcoholic beverages consumed by passengers in these types of vehicles.
Wildlife salvage permits (SB 395, Archuleta): Directs the Department of Fish and Wildlife to conduct a wildlife-collision data collection pilot program to support wildlife conservation efforts. Additionally, this bill would authorize the Fish and Game Commission, in consultation with the CHP and other stakeholders, to establish a wildlife salvage pilot program authorizing the issuance of a permit for the removal and recovery of deer, elk, pronghorn antelope, and wild pigs killed because of a collision with a vehicle, if the wild game meat is used for human consumption.
The California Highway Patrol has announced a new CHP Registration Enforcement and Guidance program to reduce out-of-state registration violators.
The CHP Registration Enforcement and Guidance, or CHP REG, program replaces the Californians Help Eliminate All The Evasive Registration Scofflaws, or CHEATERS, program.
Since the program’s inception in 2004, the CHP has recovered approximately $26 million in registration fees.
In 2018, the CHP surpassed $3.2 million in recovered fees from residents avoiding California registration.
“California loses millions of dollars in revenue every year from vehicles being unlawfully registered in other states or countries,” CHP Commissioner Warren Stanley said. “This program relies on the public’s input to support our investigators in returning funding to the state. Recovered registration fees are important to the California economy and are invested back into local communities.”
The CHP REG program focuses on residents who register their vehicles out-of-state while living or working in California and operate those vehicles on California’s roadways.
The primary goal of the program is to obtain voluntary registration compliance through education, but, when necessary, enforcement action is taken.
California vehicle registration through the Department of Motor Vehicles is required within 20 days of establishing residency and for all vehicles primarily operated in the state.
The CHP encourages members of the public to report vehicles driven on a regular basis on California roadways with out-of-state registration to the CHP REG program Web site at https://www.chp.ca.gov/Notify-CHP/CHP-REG-(Out-of-State-Registration-Violators) .
When reporting a suspected violator, it is important to include: state of the plate, license plate number, date and time observed, where observed, make, model, vehicle color, and any additional identifying comments.
In 2018, more than 24,000 tips were reported to the website, leading directly to cases investigated by CHP personnel and dedicated senior volunteers.
The mission of the CHP is to provide the highest level of safety, service and security.
For most people today, Christmas is a time of food, family and festivities, when attention turns from work and woes to fellowship and celebration. Yet it has not always been so. In fact, Christmas of 1776 marked one of the most harrowing days in American history – when the fate of the fledgling republic itself hung in the balance.
Often remembered as Washington’s crossing of the Delaware, it pitted the ragtag Continental Army against perhaps the most feared fighting force on Earth, the German Hessians, whose services had been paid for by Britain. Yet the outcome would ultimately hinge as much on cold, ice and disease as on fighting prowess.
America’s waning prospects
Washington’s forces needed some good news. After they ran the British out of Boston in March of 1776, things began going from bad to worse. The British chased Washington out of New York, then across New Jersey. By year’s end, Washington’s army was shrinking, and morale was low.
The British troops were ensconced in New York, well-fed and warm. They left German troops in charge of Trenton, New Jersey. Washington was expecting the forces of Generals Horatio Gates and Charles Lee to join him, but they were delayed by winter weather and lack of confidence.
The tide begins to turn
The first hint of reprieve arrived in the form of Thomas Paine’s “The American Crisis,” published on Dec. 19, with its famous lines, “These are the times that try men’s souls… . Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered… but the harder the conflict, the great the triumph.” Washington ordered it read to the men.
Finally, the troops of Gates and Lee arrived, followed by militiamen from Philadelphia, providing Washington with a total force of about 6,000, many whose enlistments would expire at year’s end. On Christmas Eve, provisions arrived, further enhancing morale.
Crossing the Delaware
Washington’s plan was to make multiple crossings of the Delaware River in boats. On Christmas morning, he ordered the troops three days’ food and fresh arms. The crossing would begin as soon as darkness fell. However, the weather deteriorated over the course of the evening, as drizzle changed into freezing rain and snow.
Henry Knox, Washington’s chief of artillery, had organized the crossing, which would be imperiled by floating ice. Men who got wet faced grave risks of frostbite and freezing to death. Because of the ice and bad weather, the crossing, which was to be complete at midnight, was not finished until early the next morning.
The Battle of Trenton
The commander of the German troops in Trenton had received warning that an attack was coming, but he dismissed it, in part because lone farmers had been harrying the Germans for days, alternately drawing them out with gunshot and then retreating.
Against all odds, the Dec. 26 surprise attack succeeded, throwing the Germans into confusion. When they tried to organize a counterattack, the Americans fired on them with muskets, killing their commander and sowing further discord.
As a result of the battle, the Americans captured about 900 Germans and a large cache of supplies. Against orders, many American troops began enjoying captured rum, with the result that some fell into the water as they returned across the river.
Further crossings
While the attack and another foray a few days later did little to imperil the British forces in New York, they did restore the morale of the American troops. Many whose terms of service were ending elected, thanks in part to a congressional bounty, to remain.
After a third successful crossing, Washington and his men made their way to Princeton, where another successful attack forced the enemy back to New Brunswick. Thereafter the Continental Army established its winter encampment in Morristown in early January.
The real killers
Yet the seasonal cessation of hostilities did not bring an end to suffering and death. Throughout the Revolutionary War, far more troops died of disease than in battle. Common scourges included smallpox, typhus, dysentery and malaria. Of course, enemy troops were subject to the same diseases.
Factors such as poor sanitation and crowded living conditions created a favorable environment for the transmission of infectious disease, while poor hygiene and malnutrition lowered host resistance to infection.
In this respect, the war reprised a perennial theme of history – disease took more lives than combat. In his seminal book, “Plagues and Peoples,” historian William McNeill demonstrates the decisive historical role of diseases such as smallpox in Mexico, bubonic plague in China and typhoid fever in Europe.
Disease also deviled the American troops the following winter at Valley Forge, again multiplied by poor living conditions. The winters of 1779 and 1780 in Morristown were still worse, due to supply shortages and yet harsher weather. Several regiments even mutinied – a fate Washington had previously managed to avoid.
Victory in perseverance
Against great odds, Washington managed to keep the army together, and eventually the Americans triumphed, as much through dodging decisive defeats and refusing to surrender as through any military prowess.
As such chapters in the War of Independence illustrate, America has known many bleak Christmases, and when it comes to negotiating difficult times, the stubborn spirit of its people has often proved its redemption.
Mother Earth seems to be on repeat with another month of heat: November 2019 was the second-hottest November in the 140-year global climate record.
Moreover, both the season (September through November) and the year to date (January through November) were each the second hottest in recorded history, according to scientists at NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information.
The exceptional heat also was felt at both ends of the world: Sea ice coverage across the Arctic and Antarctic oceans fell to near-record lows in November.
Here’s more from NOAA’s latest monthly global climate report.
Climate by the numbers – November 2019
The average global land and ocean surface temperature for November 2019 was 1.66 degrees F (0.92 of a degree C) above the 20th-century average and the second-highest November temperature on record, just shy of November of 2015.
In fact, the world’s five hottest Novembers have all occurred since 2013.
The average global sea surface temperature in November was 1.39 degrees F (0.77 of a degree C) above average – the second-highest temperature for November on record, behind November 2015.
Year to date and seasonal statistics
The year-to-date global land and ocean surface temperature was 1.69 degrees F (0.94 of a degree C) above the 20th-century average, which made it the second-warmest period of January through November in the 140-year record – just behind the same period in 2016.
The season (autumn or spring, depending on the hemisphere) saw an average global land and ocean temperature 1.69 degrees F (0.94 of a degree C) above the 20th-century average of 57.1 degrees F (14 degrees C). It was the second-hottest September-through-November period on record behind 2015.
More notable climate events from this report
– Sea-ice coverage shrank to its second-lowest size on record for November in both the Arctic and Antarctic behind that observed in November 2016. Arctic sea ice coverage was 12.8 percent below the 1981–2010 average, while the Antarctic coverage was 6.35 percent below average.
– Continents and island regions sweated it out: It was the hottest November on record for South America, Africa and the Hawaiian Islands. The Caribbean had its second-hottest November, and Europe had its seventh-hottest on record.
– Warming of the ocean continued: The world’s average sea surface temperature ranked second warmest for the year to date – just 0.05 of a degree F (0.03 of a degree C) cooler than the record-breaking year of 2016.
Hunt Allcott, New York University; Jean-Pierre Dubé, University of Chicago, and Molly Schnell, Northwestern University
Many think that a key cause of nutritional inequality is food deserts – or neighborhoods without supermarkets, mostly in low-income areas. The narrative is that folks who live in food deserts are forced to shop at local convenience stores, where it’s hard to find healthy groceries. If we could just get a supermarket to open in those neighborhoods, the thinking goes, then people would be able to eat healthy.
From 2004 to 2016, over 1,000 supermarkets opened in neighborhoods around the country that previously had been food deserts. We analyzed the grocery purchases of a sample of 10,000 households living in those neighborhoods.
Did they start to buy healthier food after the supermarket opened nearby?
Although many people began shopping at the new local supermarket after it opened, they generally didn’t buy healthier food. We can statistically conclude that the effect on healthy eating from opening new supermarkets was negligible at best. We calculated that local access to supermarkets explains no more than about 1.5% of the difference in healthy eating between low- and high-income households.
How could this be?
Why food deserts aren’t the problem
The food desert narrative suggests the lack of supply of healthy foods is what causes reduced demand for them.
But in the modern economy, stores have become amazingly good at selling us exactly the kinds of things we want to buy. Our research suggests the opposite narrative: Lower demand for healthy food is what causes the lack of supply.
Furthermore, local neighborhood conditions don’t matter much, since we regularly venture outside our neighborhoods. We calculate that the average American travels 5.2 miles to shop. Low-income households aren’t that different: They travel 4.8 miles.
Given that we’re willing to travel that far, we tend to shop in supermarkets even if there isn’t one down the street. We found that even people who live in ZIP codes without a supermarket still buy 85% of their groceries from supermarkets.
Tax sugar, subsidize produce
In other words, people don’t suddenly go from shopping at an unhealthy convenience store to shopping at the new, healthy supermarket. In reality, people go from shopping at a faraway supermarket to shopping at a new supermarket that offers the same types of groceries.
To be clear, new grocery stores do provide many benefits. In many neighborhoods, new retail can bring jobs, a place to see neighbors and a sense of revitalization. People who live nearby get more options and don’t have to travel as far to shop.
But the data show that healthier eating is not one of those benefits.
Instead, we would recommend tweaking prices as a better approach to encouraging healthier habits. Taxes on sugary drinks can discourage their consumption, while food-stamp programs could be modified to make fruits and vegetables cheaper.
Health inequality is one of our society’s most important problems. We hope that this research can direct efforts toward ideas that can materially improve health – and away from ideas that do not.
Christmas Eve, 1968. As one of the most turbulent, tragic years in American history drew to a close, millions around the world were watching and listening as the Apollo 8 astronauts – Frank Borman, Jim Lovell and Bill Anders – became the first humans to orbit another world.
As their command module floated above the lunar surface, the astronauts beamed back images of the moon and Earth and took turns reading from the book of Genesis, closing with a wish for everyone "on the good Earth."
"We were told that on Christmas Eve we would have the largest audience that had ever listened to a human voice," recalled Borman during 40th anniversary celebrations in 2008. "And the only instructions that we got from NASA was to do something appropriate."
"The first 10 verses of Genesis is the foundation of many of the world's religions, not just the Christian religion," added Lovell. "There are more people in other religions than the Christian religion around the world, and so this would be appropriate to that and so that's how it came to pass."
The mission was also famous for the iconic "Earthrise" image, snapped by Anders, which would give humankind a new perspective on their home planet. Anders has said that despite all the training and preparation for an exploration of the moon, the astronauts ended up discovering Earth.
The rest of us can better imagine what it was like for the crew when they made that iconic photo, thanks to a 2013 NASA visualization which draws on richly detailed maps of the moon's surface made from data gathered by NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter.
Also in 2013, the first ever "Earthrise" photo, taken by NASA's Lunar Orbiter 1 in 1966 and restored and enhanced by the Lunar Orbiter Image Recovery Project in 2008, was sent to NASA's Lunar Atmosphere and Dust Environment Explorer mission in lunar orbit, using the Lunar Laser Communication Demonstration system.
‘There is a Santa Claus’
The Apollo 8 astronauts got where they were that Christmas Eve because of a bold, improvisational call by NASA.
With the clock ticking on President Kennedy's challenge to land on the moon by decade's end, delays with the lunar module were threatening to slow the Apollo program.
So NASA decided to change mission plans and send the Apollo 8 crew all the way to the moon without a lunar module on the first manned flight of the massive Saturn V rocket.
The crew rocketed into orbit on Dec. 21, and after circling the moon 10 times on Christmas Eve, it was time to come home.
On Christmas morning, mission control waited anxiously for word that Apollo 8's engine burn to leave lunar orbit had worked. They soon got confirmation when Lovell radioed, "Roger, please be informed there is a Santa Claus."
The crew splashed down in the Pacific on Dec. 27. A lunar landing was still months away, but for the first time ever, humans from Earth had visited the moon and returned home safely.
A few hundred years ago, who would have dreamed that the humble Christmas tree would one day be an immense global success? Certainly not Martin Luther, who is said to have decorated a tree with candles to celebrate the birth of Jesus Christ. Nor Prince Albert, who several centuries later set up the first Christmas tree in Windsor Castle. Who would have guessed that fir trees would be grown in Denmark especially for the export market, that others would be shipped by helicopter in Oregon, or that factories in China would produce plastic replicas?
So, let’s climb on the sleigh and take a ride around this seasonal item, so emblematic of the growth of market economics and world trade, for an informed choice between natural or artificial, locally or globally sourced.
O Tannenbaum
Legend has it that Martin Luther was strolling in the woods on Christmas Eve when he glimpsed stars twinkling among the branches of a fir tree. He cut down a sapling, took it home, decorated it with candles and told his son that it reminded him of how Christ descended from heaven to live among mortals on Earth. Since then, the trees around which revelers danced in medieval town squares in Germany have been brought indoors. Other Protestant countries followed suit, and the holiday evergreen was first featured in British homes in the 19th century, when gained popularity thanks to Queen Victoria’s Saxon husband, Prince Albert.
The Protestant origins of decorated fir trees at Yuletide draws on other influences too, much as the invention of Father Christmas. A range of ancient figures and beliefs converged to form Santa Claus, long accepted by the Catholic church – but not after some resistance. For example, on December 23, 1951, in Dijon, France, a red-jacketed mannequin was burned outside the city’s cathedral on the grounds that Saint Nick was a pagan character that did not exist in real life. (This incendiary statement prompted anthropologist Claude Lévi-Strauss to pen “The torture of Santa Claus”, a witty and thoughtful essay.)
Regardless of whether you see Christmas trees as a symbol of the winter solstice or the Nativity, the odds are good that you’ll be buying one this year. On Christmas night you will find them in 90% of UK homes, 77% of US households and nearly 25% of those in France – they even has a measure of popularity in Australia, where Christmas occurs during the summer vacation.
A Danish Nordmann for Sweden’s Ikea
Interestingly, most Christmas trees in Europe hail from the realm of Denmark. Why? Because the country grows them on a massive scale, making it the EU’s leading producer. But before going any further, we should explain that these trees are no longer harvested in forests but farmed. So fear not, you will do no damage to a real forest by purchasing a natural Christmas tree.
Indeed, it is precisely because they no longer grow in forests that Christmas trees come from neither Norway nor Sweden, despite these countries’ abundant timber resources. Two figures may help clear things up: Denmark produces about 10 million Christmas trees a year, with the domestic market only absorbing 10%. The potential of farming firs appeared in the 1990s when the country joined the European Union, with its system of farm subsidies.
Danish farmers were quick to adopt the Nordmann fir (Abies nordmanniana). While it was more expensive than the spruce (Picea abies) and doesn’t fill the room with a delicate smell of honey and resin, it sports bluish cones and a long-lasting foliage with a silvery underside. Little seen in modern homes in the 1960s, the Nordmann has gradually taken over.
If you’re European and buy your tree at the Swedish retailer Ikea, the world’s biggest purchaser and seller of Christmas trees, it will be Danish. The company goes so far as to make them a loss leader: You will pay only 29 euros for the tree itself, along with baubles of various sizes and prices that you had absolutely no intention of buying but which will somehow land in your cart. You will receive a 20-euro voucher, to be spent on your next visit (before the end of February), but that will almost certainly be spent on another bunch of goodies of various sizes and prices…
Size and price
The advantage with Ikea, though, is that it only sells one size of Christmas tree, 2 meters (roughly 6 feet) tall. So you don’t need to dither about getting a smaller, cheaper one, or a bigger, more expensive beast.
The theoretical relation between the size and price of a Christmas tree involves extremely complex equations. Were I to say that you should use a Hotelling-Faustmann type model you could be scarcely any the wiser, so perhaps I should offer some explanation. Harold Hotelling was a leading American economist and statistician, who established that the price of a natural resource should increase at the same pace as interest rates. The intuitive assumption is that the resource owner must choose between exploiting it today or tomorrow. If tomorrow’s price is lower than the amount they would earn from selling it today and putting the money in the bank, then they would obviously opt to sell it straight away. So the difference in price between a ten-year old Nordmann fir, that stands 0.6 feet taller, and a nine-year-old tree depends on the rate of interest.
This is where Martin Faustmann, a German forester, comes in. He pointed out that trees can be replanted once they have been cut down, something that’s clearly not the case for coal or oil. If a farmer sells their firs after ten years rather than nine, they lose one year’s growth on the saplings they would have planted on the same plot of land. If this sparks your curiosity and you like equations, take a look at the article in the American Journal of Agricultural Economics, “A Hotelling-Faustmann Explanation of the Structure of Christmas Tree Prices”. (US economists are marvelous because they publish papers on all sorts of subjects.)
Oregon, helicopters and Mexican trucks
It will come as no surprise that the United States both produces and consumes the most Christmas trees. For instance, the Noble Mountain Tree Farm grows the Noble fir (Abies procera), the Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) and the Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) on almost 2,000 hectares. Once felled, they are removed by helicopter, loaded onto trucks or refrigerated containers, and shipped to the rest of the United States, to Central America and even to places as far afield such as Doha, Singapore and Ho Chi Minh City.
On the other hand, you are less likely to know that Oregon-grown Christmas trees have become entangled in a trade dispute between the United States and Mexico. It started with a long argument about allowing Mexican trucks onto US highways. Under the North American Free Trade Association they were set to gain access to the road network in 2000.
For reasons that are more or less convincing (safety issues with vehicles, inexperienced truckers, trafficking of drugs and illegal immigrants, among others), the federal authorities dragged their feet and its trading partner finally lost patience. In 2009 the Mexican government imposed several billion dollars’ worth of import surtaxes on about 100 categories of goods, including Christmas trees. But why, you may wonder, did they bother with the little firs? It was all the fault of two Congressmen from Oregon. So there is a certain logic behind the targeting of retaliatory measures.
Chinese manufacturing
Christmas trees are also caught up in the trade war opposing the United States and China. To be exact, it has more to do with fairy lights and other seasonal decorations than it does with fir trees. The PRC does not grow them, nor does it celebrate Christmas. What’s more, the Chinese New Year is symbolized by an animal and the dominant colour is red, not green. (Next in line is the year of the rat, which starts on February 5.) But China does manufacture and export plastic Christmas trees and all the associated trimmings. Indeed it by far the world’s largest producer.
As soon as the conflict erupted, Washington slapped 10% extra duty on imports of Christmas decorations, but did not touch PVC or polyurethane trees. Don’t ask me to explain this difference in treatment, as I haven’t a clue. Nor could I say why the surcharge on trimmings was lifted last summer. Perhaps Donald Trump was upset by the idea that kids at home would find their trees a little bare…
Of course, there is only the faintest connection between nursery tales and Chinese factories churning out Christmas decorations: no elves with pointed ears nor mischievous imps assisting Santa Claus. Rather, assembly-line workers and automated machines slicing PVC into countless synthetic pine needles. Manufacturing is not located somewhere north of the Polar Circle, but 300 kilometres southwest of Shanghai, in a city called Yiwu. Almost 1,000 firms making Christmas goods are based there. They account for 60% of global output of plastic fir trees and Christmas lights, gilded stars and those inevitable baubles. If you would like to see the fan belts and choppers of this workshop of the Nativity world in action, then watch the National Geographic video, “I Did Not Know That: How Christmas Trees Are Made”. (It’s probably better to put the little ones to bed first, though.)
The pros and cons of natural or artificial trees
In the United States, the volume of fake Christmas tree sales is close to that of the real thing, and rising steadily. Its attractive price – use it two years running and you start saving – is apparently not the reason for this trend. Indeed a dip in demand only marginally benefits their natural rival. Instead, their success in the United States seems a matter of convenience: no early-December shopping run, no needles to vacuum after the holidays.
In contrast, in France the market share of artificial trees is pretty steady, stuck at about 20%. Which is just as well for local growers, as Danish and other imports only account for a fifth of overall volume. The French seem attached to their home-grown Christmas trees.
But which tree is “greener”, natural or artificial? At first glance a real tree seems a better bet: photosynthesis drives plant growth, capturing carbon dioxide. The synthetic alternative causes emissions, through oil extraction and PVC production, both of which consume large amounts of energy. But two key parameters may wipe out this advantage: the years the artificial tree is used and how far it is shipped (transportion also producing emissions).
The longer you keep your plastic tree, the less it will matter that it was made in China or that you bought it miles from your home. But the further your natural Christmas tree travelled, the worse its carbon budget will be. This ecological contest depends on other factors too, such as end-of-life processing (landfill or recycling) and environmental damage other than CO2 emissions (in particular, the impact of pesticides and biodiversity). The results of the life-cycle analysis of the two commodities vary depending on the relevant parameters and values. For instance, the tipping point regarding re-use may be 5 years or 20 years, depending on the sources. In short, it’s hard to tell.
For what it’s worth, I would advise you to opt for a natural fir tree, on the condition that you don’t just trash it, but take it to the nearest recycling centre. If in doubt, get a locally sourced tree or better yet, an organic one.
Whatever happens, don’t make the same mistake as the envious little tree in the Hans-Christian Andersen story, unable to appreciate living in the present.
“Out in the woods stood a nice little Fir Tree. The place he had was a very good one: the sun shone on him: as to fresh air, there was enough of that, and round him grew many large-sized comrades, pines as well as firs. But the little Fir wanted so very much to be a grown-up tree…”
And with this thought we wish you a very happy Christmas, with or without a tree decked with Chinese-made decorations.
François Lévêque recently published “Competition’s New Clothes” (“Les vêtements neufs de la concurrence”), Éditions Odile Jacob.