LOWER LAKE, Calif. — A new glamping retreat is set to open later this month in Lower Lake.
Huttopia, a popular family-owned European elevated camping brand recognized for its collection of sustainable ready-to-camp, or “prêt-à-camper,” lodging concepts across the world, announced Tuesday the debut of its sixth location in North America, Huttopia Wine Country, opening this June 30 in partnership with Six Sigma Ranch and Winery.
Set on the 4,300-acre Six Sigma Ranch and Winery, Huttopia Wine Country will feature fully solar-powered facilities, including the main lodge, swimming pool and all accommodations, making it the world’s first Huttopia camp to be truly off-grid.
Opening with a collection of 63 fully solar-powered wood and canvas tents in three different configurations accommodating from two to five guests, the ready-to-camp property offers guests uninterrupted access to Six Sigma’s miles of hiking and mountain biking trails, wine tastings and vineyard tours, and panoramic views of the region’s rolling vineyard hills.
On-site amenities include a central lodge, kids’ playground, camp store and custom-fitted Airstream food truck, offering fresh-made meals, small dining delights and a selection of wines from the Six Sigma Winery and across France.
Families can explore with the property’s electric mountain bike rentals, wind down with the solar-heated swimming pool, or games of Ping-Pong, pétanque and corn hole.
“When we started our partnership Six Sigma Ranch and Winery, it felt like a natural fit for us given our shared ethos as family-run businesses with a focus on sustainability,” said Margaux Bossanne, Huttopia’s North American brand manager. “To establish Huttopia’s presence in a location as pristine as this will afford our guests a familiar experience in a new and desirable location, and we’re also thrilled to be able to offer visitors to Six Sigma low-impact lodging to rest their heads at the end of the day.”
Open this June 30 through late November, and seasonally from March through November beginning in 2024, Huttopia Wine Country rates start at $109 per night.
Huttopia also features North American ready-to-camp sites in Southern Maine, New Hampshire’s White Mountains, New York’s Adirondacks, Sutton, Quebec and the most recent addition, Huttopia Paradise Springs in Southern California.
LAKE COUNTY, Calif. — The Lakeport Planning Commission is set to discuss several applications this week, including one for signage at the former Kmart shopping center and a tentative map for a subdivision.
The commission will meet at 5:30 p.m. Wednesday, June 14, in the council chambers at Lakeport City Hall, 225 Park St.
The council chambers will be open to the public for the meeting. Masks are highly encouraged where 6-foot distancing cannot be maintained.
To speak on an agenda item, access the meeting remotely here; the meeting ID is 814 1135 4347, pass code is 847985.
To join by phone, dial 1-669-444-9171; for one tap mobile, +13462487799,,81411354347#,,,,*847985#.
Comments can be submitted by email to This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.. To give the city clerk adequate time to print out comments for consideration at the meeting, please submit written comments before 4:30 p.m. on Wednesday, June 14.
On the agenda are three applications.
The first is for an architectural and design review and categorical exemption sought by Lake County Contractors to allow for the construction of a 7-foot-tall, galvanized chain link fence located at 301 and 401 Industrial Ave.
Next on the agenda is an application for another aspect of the revitalization and repurposing of the former Kmart building at 2019 S. Main St.
Upward Architects, which is renovating the building, is applying for the adoption of a master sign program review and categorical exemption that would include the construction of a 35-foot-tall sign as well as a 6-foot monument sign for the shopping center.
The new confirmed tenants are Tractor Supply and Marshalls, with a third tenant still to be determined.
The last of the applications the commission will consider is from Waterstone Residential, which is seeking a tentative parcel map that would allow for the subdivision of a 15-acre property into four separate lots at 1310 Craig Ave.
Waterstone is proposing to develop 128 apartment units and 48 cluster homes on the property, which includes the Parkside Subdivision next to Westside Community Park.
Email Elizabeth Larson at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.. Follow her on Twitter, @ERLarson, or Lake County News, @LakeCoNews.
LAKE COUNTY, Calif. — The Board of Supervisors this week will present several proclamations along with funds to local senior centers.
The board will meet beginning at 9 a.m. Tuesday, June 13, in the board chambers on the first floor of the Lake County Courthouse, 255 N. Forbes St., Lakeport.
The meeting ID is 954 4293 9695, pass code 322743. The meeting also can be accessed via one tap mobile at +16699006833,,95442939695#,,,,*322743#.
All interested members of the public that do not have internet access or a Mediacom cable subscription are encouraged to call 669-900-6833, and enter the Zoom meeting ID and pass code information above.
At 9:08 a.m., the board will present American Rescue Plan Act funds to county senior centers to assist with capital improvements and other necessary updates at their specific locations.
At 9:15 a.m., the supervisors will present a proclamation recognizing June 19, 2023, as “Juneteenth National Freedom Day: A Day of Observance.”
That will be followed at 9:20 a.m. with a proclamation honoring Record-Bee Sports Editor Brian Sumpter for 40 years of service and at 9:30 a.m. with a proclamation Michele Carson as the first Lake County recipient of Tourism Ambassador Institute’s International CTA of the Year Award.
The full agenda follows.
CONSENT AGENDA
5.1: Adopt proclamation honoring Brian Sumpter for his 40 years of devotion and service to the county of Lake.
5.2: Approve the continuation of the proclamation declaring a shelter crisis emergency due to the current need for sheltering for those experiencing homelessness during the weather and temperature patterns that the county of Lake has been experiencing.
5.3: Approve continuation of proclamation declaring a Clear Lake hitch emergency.
5.4: Approve continuation of proclamation of the existence of a local emergency due to pervasive tree mortality.
5.5: Adopt proclamation celebrating Michele Carson as the first Lake County recipient of Tourism Ambassador Institute’s International CTA of the Year Award.
5.6: Second reading of ordinance amending Section 2-3A.2, Compensation of the Board of Supervisors, and Section 2-3B, Trial and Grand Jurors, of Article 1, Chapter 2 of the Lake County Code.
5.7: Adopt resolution approving Agreement No.23-0148-000-SA with the state of California, Department of Food and Agriculture and authorize the execution of the Fuels, Lubricants, and Automotive Products Program agreement in the amount of $2,475 for Period July 1, 2023, through June 30, 2024.
5.8: Adopt resolution approving unanticipated revenue to fund aquatic weed control program.
5.9: Approve agreement between county of Lake and the Lake County Office of Education for the Safe Schools Healthy Students Program for school-based specialty mental health services in the amount of $500,000 for Fiscal Year 2023-24 and authorize the board chair to sign.
5.10: Approve agreement between county of Lake and Davis Guest Home in the amount of $210,000 for FY 2023-24 and authorize the board chair to sign.
5.11: Approve memorandum of understanding between Lake County Behavioral Health Services and Lake County Health Services Departments for the Safe Rx Program in the amount of $80,000 through FY 2023-24 and authorize the board chair to sign.
5.12: Adopt proclamation recognizing June 19, 2023, as “Juneteenth National Freedom Day: A Day of Observance.”
5.13: Approve Board of Supervisors minutes for May 9 and May 23, 2023.
5.14: Approve amendment of previously approved purchase of new vehicle for Building & Safety Division, and authorize the Community Development director to sign the purchase order.
5.15: Approve leave of absence for Department of Social Services employee Christina Thomas from July 1, 2023, to June 2, 2024.
5.16: Approve continuation of an emergency declaration for drought conditions.
5.17: Approve continuation of a local emergency by the Lake County Sheriff/OES director for the January 2023 Atmospheric River Event.
5.18: Approve continuation of proclamation of the existence of a local emergency due to low elevation snow and extreme cold.
5.19: (a) Approve rental agreement between the county of Lake and Kevin Soto for Storage Hangar No. 1 at Lampson Field for the monthly amount of $300, and authorize the chair to sign; and (b) approve rental agreement between the county of Lake and Kevin Soto for Storage Hangar No. 2 at Lampson Field for the monthly amount of $500, and authorize the chair to sign.
5.20: a) Waive the formal bidding process pursuant to County Ordinance 3109 Section 2-38 due to 38.5 purchase of proprietary articles in which contractor is the sole provider of service; and, b) approve contract between county of Lake and Excellesoft Partners LLC for REVA Software, in the amount of $31,530 from April 15, 2023 to June 30, 2026, and authorize the chair to sign.
5.21: Approve proposed revision to the Merit System Services social worker IV classification specification.
5.22: Adopt resolution revising the Fiscal Year 2022-2023 Adopted Budget of the county of Lake by canceling reserves in Fund 262 CSA No. 2 Spring Valley Water System Replacement Reserve Designation, in the amount of $10,000 to make appropriations in the Budget Unit 8462, Object Code 784.18-00 Maintenance — Buildings & Improvements, for the purchase of a weir gate activator.
5.23: Adopt resolution authorizing the Special Districts administrator to sign a notice of completion for work performed under the agreement dated Jan. 30, 2023.
5.24: Approve and sign the agreement between county of Lake and Clean Lakes Inc. for the Aquatic Vegetation Management Program for Fiscal Year 2022-2023.
5.25: Sitting as the Lake County Watershed Protection District, adopt resolution to amend the adopted budget for FY 22-23 by Increasing Revenue in Fund 200 Budget Unit 1809 Watershed Protection District to appropriate unanticipated revenue.
5.26: Sitting as the Lake County Watershed Protection District, approve a purchase order for the purchase of equipment outlined in Exhibit A for District levee and Highland Springs vegetation maintenance, and authorize the Water Resources director/assistant purchasing agent to sign the purchase orders.
TIMED ITEMS
6.2, 9:07 a.m.: Pet of the Week.
6.3, 9:08 a.m.: Presentation of funds to the Lake County senior centers.
6.4, 9:15 a.m.: Presentation of proclamation recognizing June 19, 2023, as “Juneteenth National Freedom Day: A Day of Observance.”
6.5, 9:20 a.m.: Presentation of proclamation honoring Brian Sumpter for his 40 years of devotion and service to the county of Lake.
6.6, 9:30 a.m.: Presentation of proclamation celebrating Michele Carson as the first Lake County recipient of Tourism Ambassador Institute’s International CTA of the Year Award.
6.7, 10 a.m.: Consideration of project plan for South Lake algae bloom abatement in the Clearlake and Clearlake Oaks areas and submit project plan for funding to ARPA committee for their consideration, and/or to consider using Local Assistance and Tribal Consistency Fund, and/or to submit as a potential project to Congressman Thompson for the annual Congressional Community Project Funding.
6.8, 11 a.m.: Sitting as the Board of Directors, Lake County Watershed Protection District, presentation of the Clear Lake Integrated Aquatic Plant Management Program.
UNTIMED ITEMS
7.2: Review and consideration of travel and reimbursement policy.
7.3: Consideration of public defender contract amendment No. 10 between the county of Lake and Lake Indigent Defense LLP for the purpose of extending the term of the contract to June 30, 2024, and increasing the monthly contract amount $143,750 to fund an additional felony attorney and authorize chair to sign.
7.4: Consideration of the following Advisory Board Appointment: Cobb Municipal Advisory Council Fish and Wildlife Advisory Committee.
7.5: Consideration of designating the Lake County Board of Supervisors’ representative for the North Coast Opportunities Governing Board.
7.6: Consideration of Change Order No. 1 Cooper Creek Bridge at Witter Springs Road, Federal Project No. BRLO-5914(078); Bid No. 22-03, with West Coast Contractors, for an increase of $6,062.61 and a revised contract amount of $1,496,872.35 and authorize the chair to sign.
7.7: Consideration of the distribution of excess proceeds in the amount of $333,121.90 from tax defaulted tax sale No. 159 held on June 5, 2021 (per R&T §4675).
CLOSED SESSION
8.1: Public employee appointment pursuant to Gov. Code Section 54957(b) (1): Interviews for Behavioral Health director; appointment of Behavioral Health director.
8.2: Public employee appointment pursuant to Gov. Code Section 54957(b) (1): Interviews for Public Health officer; appointment of Public Health officer.
8.3: Public employee discipline/dismissal/release.
8.4: Conference with legal counsel: Significant exposure to litigation pursuant to Gov. Code section 54956.9(d)(2), (e)(1) — One potential case.
8.5: Conference with legal counsel: Existing litigation pursuant to Gov. Code sec. 54956.9 (d)(1) — FERC Project No. 77, Potter Valley Hydroelectric Project.
Email Elizabeth Larson at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.. Follow her on Twitter, @ERLarson, or Lake County News, @LakeCoNews.
On Tuesday, Gun Violence Prevention Task Force Chairman Rep. Mike Thompson (CA-04), Task Force Vice Chair Rep. Lucy McBath (GA-07), Assistant Democratic Leader Jim Clyburn (SC-06), and House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries (NY-08) announced a legislative strategy on gun violence prevention.
Reps. Thompson, Clyburn and McBath filed discharge petitions for their bills: the Bipartisan Background Checks Act, the Enhanced Background Checks Act and the Assault Weapons Ban
“Over the last several months, members of the Gun Violence Prevention Task Force have been personally appealing to House Republicans to find any common ground for bipartisan action on gun violence prevention,” said Thompson. “While the American people are calling for progress, it remains clear that House Republican Leadership refuses to take this issue seriously. The American people deserve more from their elected representatives, and House Democrats are launching three discharge petitions on gun violence prevention legislation that would help save lives and keep our children safe, including my Bipartisan Background Checks Act. Action on gun violence prevention is long overdue — the only question is will Republicans join us in bringing these bills up for a vote.”
“As a nation, we should not be in a situation where our children are afraid to go to school or where people have to live in fear when they go to a mall, a concert or a place of worship. House Democrats are determined to address this crisis and I'm grateful to the Gun Violence Prevention Task Force for leading the charge and launching these three discharge petitions. While extreme MAGA Republicans are willing to flood our streets with weapons of war, House Democrats are willing to do whatever is necessary to protect our communities and end the scourge of gun violence once and for all,” said Jeffries.
“This Saturday, June 17, marks eight years since nine parishioners lost their lives and three others were victimized at the Emanuel AME Church in Charleston, South Carolina. In the years since, my bill to close the deadly loophole that allowed the shooter to obtain his gun has passed the House twice under Democratic majorities, but Republican opposition has prevented it from being enacted into law,” said Assistant Democratic Leader James E. Clyburn. “We need action to end this gun violence epidemic. That starts with signing these discharge petitions to enact common-sense gun violence prevention legislation and protect our communities.”
“Today marks a new step in our journey to ending gun violence in America. My colleagues and I have just filed discharge petitions to force Republican leadership to bring common-sense gun safety legislation to the floor," said McBath. "After the conviction of my son’s killer, I made a promise to Jordan on the steps of the Courthouse to take all the love I have as a mother and spend the rest of my life devoted to making sure parents across the country never had to go through the same pain that I did. It is these policies that will fulfill our promise."
Under House parliamentary rules, once a petition has garnered 218 signatures, a motion to discharge can then be offered on the Floor and the measure can be put to a vote.
LAKE COUNTY, Calif. — The Clearlake City Council is set to consider the city’s budget for the new fiscal year, continue a discussion of an appeal for a city project and discuss a contract for abatement of several properties.
The council will meet at 5 p.m. Thursday, June 15, for a budget workshop before the regular meeting begins at 6 p.m. in the council chambers at Clearlake City Hall, 14050 Olympic Drive.
The meeting will be broadcast live on the city's YouTube channel or the Lake County PEGTV YouTube Channel. Community members also can participate via Zoom or can attend in person. The webinar ID is 815 7524 1629.
One tap mobile is available at +16694449171,,81575241629# or join by phone at 669 444 9171 or 720 707 2699.
Comments and questions can be submitted in writing for City Council consideration by sending them to City Clerk Melissa Swanson at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it..
To give the council adequate time to review your questions and comments, please submit your written comments before 4 p.m. Thursday, June 15.
The council will start off with a workshop on the 2023-24 budget at 5 p.m.
During the regular meeting, the council will meet the adoptable dogs and then hold a series of public hearings.
The hearings will include consideration of the appeal by the Koi Nation of Northern California of the Clearlake Planning Commission's April 25 approval of the environmental analysis of the city’s Burns Valley Development Project located at 14885 Burns Valley Road.
That matter has been continued from previous discussions at the council’s June 1 regular meeting and a special meeting on June 7.
The council also will hold a public hearing to adopt the 2023-24 fiscal year budget, the appropriations — or Gann — limit and the city’s fee schedule.
Under business, the council will consider a memorandum of understanding between the city and the Clearlake Middle Management Association from July 1, 2023 to June 30, 2024, and discuss the aware of a $113,800 contract with Case Excavating for the abatement of properties located at 3191 Sixth St., 3662 Cottonwood St., 16272 32nd Ave., 14870 Clement Drive, 3556 Madrone St., 14081 Woodland Drive, 3628 Johnson Ave., 16052 19th Ave., 3287 Third St. and 15582 Sharpe Lane.
On the meeting's consent agenda — items that are considered routine in nature and usually adopted on a single vote — are warrants; approval of an amendment to the agreement with Operating Engineers Public and Miscellaneous Employees Health and Welfare Trust Fund; and the minutes of the May 10 Lake County Vector Control District Board meeting.
The council will hold a closed session after the meeting to discuss a liability claim filed by Joseph Barrios and the lawsuit against the city by the Koi Nation of Northern California.
Email Elizabeth Larson at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.. Follow her on Twitter, @ERLarson, or Lake County News, @LakeCoNews.
Mehreen S. Ismail, Justin M. Palarino and Brian McKenzie
More people moved across state lines in 2021 than in 2019, many to and from highly populated and neighboring states, according to new estimates released by the U.S. Census Bureau.
Nearly 7.9 million people in the United States moved between states in 2021, up from almost 7.4 million in 2019.
People moving between states made up 18.8% of all movers in 2021, compared to 16.7% of all movers in 2019.
This increase in state-to-state movers occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic, which had sweeping effects on work and life circumstances such as a shift to remote work, potentially influencing geographic mobility.
Examining state-to-state migration patterns since the pandemic’s onset is key to understanding demographic, social and economic implications of migration during the pandemic era and beyond.
The Census Bureau regularly publishes data on state-to-state migration flows and just released estimates for 2021 based on 1-year data from the American Community Survey (ACS), which asks respondents if they changed residence in the last year.
By analyzing previous and current places of residence at the state level, we can estimate the number of people moving from origin states to destination states within a given year.
State-to-state migration
Within the broader context of geographic mobility, the extent of state-to-state migration varied across states. In-movers – or the number of people moving into a state – as a percentage of that state’s total number of movers ranged from 9.9% in California to 43.1% in the District of Columbia (Figure 1).
Most people moving into the District of Columbia came from neighboring states Virginia and Maryland.
Out-movers – or the number of people moving out of a state – as a percentage of that state’s total number of movers ranged from 11.0% in Texas to 46.8% in the District of Columbia (Figure 2). Most people moving out of the District of Columbia moved to Maryland, followed by Virginia.
States where in-movers made up at least 20% of all movers were spread across the country, while states where out-movers made up at least 20% of all movers were concentrated in the West and Northeast.
State-to-state flows and highly populated states
Highly populated states, including California, Texas and Florida, experienced some of the largest state-to-state flows.
People leaving these states tended to move to other highly populated or neighboring states (Table 1).
Most people moving from California, for example, relocated to Texas — the largest flow between two states — while most people moving from Florida moved to neighboring Georgia.
People moving to highly populated states tended to come from other states with large populations (Table 2).
For example, most people moving to Florida moved from New York, the fourth largest state in population and a longstanding origin of Florida-bound movers.
State-to-state flows between neighboring states
Moving between neighboring states resulted in sizable state-to-state flows across all regions (Table 3).
In the Northeast, for example, the largest state-to-state flow was from New York to neighboring New Jersey. In the Midwest, it was from Illinois to neighboring Indiana.
Notably, most people moving from a state in the South moved to another state in the same region, with similar flows between Florida and Georgia and vice versa.
User notes
Estimates referring to the total number of movers account for migration between the 50 states and the District of Columbia and from abroad. Estimates of specific state-to-state flows exclude migration from Puerto Rico and abroad. All estimates are for the population 1 year and over.
Mehreen Ismail and Justin Palarino are survey statisticians in the Census Bureau’s Social, Economic, and Housing Statistics Division. Brian McKenzie is chief of the Journey-to-Work and Migration Statistics Branch in the Census Bureau’s Social, Economic, and Housing Statistics Division.
May 2023 was quite warm across the contiguous U.S., ranking as the 11th-warmest May in the climate record.
The month also wrapped up a rather warm year so far, according to scientists from NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information.
Below are highlights from NOAA's U.S. monthly climate report for May 2023:
Climate by the numbers
May 2023
The average May temperature across the contiguous U.S. was 62.4 degrees F (2.2 degrees above the 20th-century average), ranking as the 11th-warmest May in NOAA’s 129-year climate record.
Temperatures were generally below average along the East Coast and above average across much of the West. Washington state had its warmest May on record while Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wyoming each had a May that ranked as their top-5 warmest. Idaho, Montana and Oregon saw their fifth-warmest May, while South Carolina’s May was the state’s 10th-coolest.
The average precipitation for May was 2.56 inches (0.35 of an inch below average), which ranked in the driest third of the record.
Precipitation was above average across much of the western Plains and West and in parts of the Southeast and New England. Precipitation was below average from the Mississippi River Valley to the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England, and in parts of the Northwest and central Rockies. Wisconsin saw its fourth-driest May on record while Pennsylvania saw its fifth driest. Maryland and Michigan ranked eighth and ninth driest on record, respectively. No state experienced a top-10 wettest May on record.
Meteorological spring (March through May 2023) | Year to date
The average temperature for the contiguous U.S. during meteorological spring was 51.5 degrees F (0.6 of a degree above average), which ranked in the middle third of the climate record. Florida ranked fourth warmest while Massachusetts ranked 10th warmest on record for this spring season.
The spring precipitation total of 7.86 inches (0.08 of an inch below average) placed it in the middle third of the record. Maryland and Pennsylvania each ranked ninth driest on record while Kansas ranked 13th driest.
The average U.S. temperature for the year to date (YTD, January through May 2023) was 45.2 degrees F, 1.9 degrees above average, ranking as the 18th-warmest such YTD on record.
Precipitation for the first five months of 2023 totaled 12.82 inches — 0.43 of an inch above average — ranking in the middle third of the record. January-through-May 2023 ranked as Utah's 11th wettest and Nevada’s 13th wettest such period on record, while Maryland ranked fifth driest and Pennsylvania ranked 12th driest.
Other notable highlights from the report
Drought improved dramatically: According to the May 30 U.S. Drought Monitor reportoffsite link, 19.0% of the contiguous U.S. was in drought, down about 5.4% from the beginning of May 2023. Drought coverage in the contiguous U.S. has dropped nearly 44% over the last seven months, from 62.78% on November 11, 2022 to 18.95% on May 30, 2023 — the fastest reduction in drought coverage since the start of the U.S. Drought Monitor report and the smallest drought footprint since May 26, 2020.
A stormy May in some parts of the U.S.: Several notable weather systems produced severe thunderstorms and a number of tornadoes that impacted portions of the U.S. last month.
• May 7: A line of thunderstorms moved into southern Indiana and northern Kentucky. A total of six tornadoes was confirmed by NOAA’s National Weather Service (NWS), five of which occurred within a 15-minute span. • May 11: A tornado outbreak occurred across areas of central Oklahoma. A total of nine tornadoes was confirmed by NWS, snapping utility poles and damaging homes. • May 12: Severe thunderstorms produced several tornadoes, up to grapefruit-sized hail and flooding in parts of Nebraska. A total of 19 tornadoes, including three rated as EF-2, was confirmed by NWS.
Bob Leamon, University of Maryland, Baltimore County
El Niño is officially here, and while it’s still weak right now, federal forecasters expect this global disrupter of worldwide weather patterns to gradually strengthen.
That may sound ominous, but El Niño – Spanish for “the little boy” – is not malevolent, or even automatically bad.
Here’s what forecasters expect, and what it means for the U.S.
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a climate pattern that starts with warm water building up in the tropical Pacific west of South America. This happens every three to seven years or so. It might last a few months or a couple of years.
Normally, the trade winds push warm water away from the coast there, allowing cooler water to surface. But when the trade winds weaken, water near the equator can heat up, and that can have all kinds of effects through what are known as teleconnections. The ocean is so vast – covering approximately one-third of the planet, or about 15 times the size of the U.S. – that those sloshings of warm water have knock-on effects around the globe.
That warming at the equator during El Niño leads to the warming of the stratosphere, starting about 6.2 miles (10 kilometers) above the surface. Scientists are still studying how exactly this teleconnection occurs.
At the same time, the lower tropical stratosphere cools.
That combination can shift the upper-level winds known as the jet stream, which blow from west to east. Altering the jet stream can affect all kinds of weather variables, from temperatures to storms and winds that can tear hurricanes apart.
Basically, what happens in the Pacific doesn’t stay in the Pacific.
So, what does all that mean for you and me?
With apologies to Charles Dickens, El Niño tends to create a tale of two regions: the best of times for some, and the worst of times for others.
On average, El Niño years are warmer globally than La Niña years – El Niño’s opposite. Globally, a strong El Niño can boost temperatures by about 0.7 degrees Fahrenheit (0.4 Celsius). But in North America, there is a lot of local variation.
El Niño years tend to be warmer across the northern part of the U.S. and in Canada, and the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley are often drier than usual in the winter and fall. The Southwest, on the other hand, tends to be cooler and wetter than average.
El Niño typically shifts the jet stream farther south, so it blows pretty much due west to east over the southern U.S. That shift tends to block moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, reducing the fuel for thunderstorms in the Southeast. La Niña, conversely, is associated with a more wavy and northward-shifted jet stream, which can enhance severe weather activity in the South and Southeast.
Over the Atlantic, El Niño tends to increase wind shear – the change in wind speed with height in the atmosphere – which can tear apart hurricanes. But El Niño has the opposite effect in the eastern Pacific, where it can mean more storms. The ocean heat can also raise the risk of marine heat waves that can devastate corals and ecosystems fish rely on.
In the middle of the U.S., El Niño is generally associated with warmer and drier conditions that can mildly increase the chances of a bountiful corn crop.
Of course, just because this is normally what happens doesn’t mean it happens every time. Witness California’s record rainfalls from multiple atmospheric rivers at the end of the last La Niña, which normally would mean dry conditions.
Every weather event is somewhat different, so the influence of El Niño is a matter of probability, not certainty. How El Niño and La Niña will be influenced over time by climate change isn’t yet clear.
The forecasts don’t all agree
Is 2023 going to be a record-breaking year? That’s the multibillion-dollar question.
The National Weather Service declares the onset of El Niño when water temperatures are at least 0.9 F (0.5 C) above normal for a three-month period in what’s known as the Niño3.4 region. That’s a large imaginary rectangle south of Hawaii along the equator.
For a strong El Niño, the Niño3.4 region needs to warm by 2.7 F (1.5 C) for three months. It’s not clear as of right now whether this El Niño will meet that threshold this year.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s first El Niño advisory of the year, released on June 8, sees an 84% chance of El Niño being greater than moderate by winter and a 56% chance that it will be strong.
“Dynamical” models, similar to the models used for typical weather forecasts, have projected a very strong El Niño, whereas “static” or statistical models are far less optimistic. Personally, I’m a statistical modeler, and my own model doesn’t suggest a strong El Niño in 2023. Rather, my model – like other static models – predicts that 2023 will fizzle out, and after a couple of quiet, or neutral, years, we will see a strong El Niño in 2026. I did get the recent unusual “triple dip” La Niña right, but I’m willing to be proved wrong by observations, as any good scientist should be.
But no computer model of any flavor has had experience with the globally super-high ocean temperatures that are occurring right now. The Atlantic is unusually warm, and that could offset some of the usual forces that come with El Niño.
Smoke from more than 100 wildfires burning across Canada has been rolling into North American cities far from the flames. New York City and Detroit were both listed among the five most polluted cities in the world because of the fires on June 7, 2023. The smoke has triggered air quality alerts in several states in recent weeks.
We asked Chris Migliaccio, a toxicologist at the University of Montana who studies the impact of wildfire smoke on human health, about the health risks people can face when smoke blows in from distant wildfires.
What’s in wildfire smoke that’s a problem?
When we talk about air quality, we often talk about PM2.5. That’s particulate matter 2.5 microns or smaller – small enough that it can travel deep into the lungs.
Exposure to PM2.5 from smoke or other air pollution, such as vehicle emissions, can exacerbate health conditions like asthma and reduce lung function in ways that can worsen existing respiratory problems and even heart disease.
But the term PM2.5 only tells you about size, not composition – what is burning can make a significant difference in the chemistry.
In the northern Rockies, where I live, most fires are fueled by vegetation, but not all vegetation is the same. If the fire is in the wildland urban interface, manufactured fuels from homes and vehicles may also be burning, and that’s going to create its own toxic chemistry, as well. Chemists often talk about volatile organic compounds, (VOCs), carbon monoxide and PAHs, or polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons produced when biomass and other matter burns having the potential to harm human health.
How does inhaling wildfire smoke harm human health?
If you have ever been around a campfire and got a blast of smoke in your face, you probably had some irritation. With exposure to wildfire smoke, you might get some irritation in the nose and throat and maybe some inflammation. If you’re healthy, your body for the most part will be able to handle it.
As with a lot of things, the dose makes the poison – almost anything can be harmful at a certain dose.
Generally, cells in the lungs called alveolar macrophages will pick up the particulates and clear them out – at reasonable doses. It’s when the system gets overwhelmed that you can have a problem.
The stress of an inflammatory response can also exacerbate existing health problems. Being exposed to wood smoke won’t independently cause someone to have a heart attack, but if they have underlying risk factors, such as significant plaque buildup, the added stress can increase the risk.
When smoke blows over long distances, does its toxicity change?
We know that the chemistry of wildfire smoke changes. The longer it’s in the atmosphere, the more the chemistry will be altered by ultraviolet light, but we still have a lot to learn.
Researchers have found that there seems to be a higher level of oxidation, so oxidants and free radicals are being generated the longer smoke is in the air. The specific health effects aren’t yet clear, but there’s some indication that more exposure leads to greater health effects.
The supposition is that more free radicals are generated the longer smoke is exposed to UV light, so there’s a greater potential for health harm. A lot of that, again, comes down to dose.
Chances are, if you’re a healthy individual, going for a bike ride or a hike in light haze won’t be a big deal, and your body will be able to recover.
If you’re doing that every day for a month in wildfire smoke, however, that raises more concerns. I’ve worked on studies with residents at Seeley Lake in Montana who were exposed to hazardous levels of PM2.5 from wildfire smoke for 49 days in 2017. We found a decrease in lung function a year later. No one was on oxygen, but there was a significant drop.
This is a relatively new area of research, and there’s still a lot we’re learning, especially with the increase in wildfire activity as the planet warms.
What precautions can people take to reduce their risk from wildfire smoke?
If there is smoke in the air, you want to decrease your exposure.
Can you completely avoid the smoke? Not unless you’re in a hermetically sealed home. The PM levels aren’t much different indoors and out unless you have a really good HVAC system, such as those with MERV 15 or better filters. But going inside decreases your activity, so your breathing rate is slower and the amount of smoke you’re inhaling is likely lower.
We also tend to advise people that if you’re in a susceptible group, such as those with asthma, create a safe space at home and in the office with a high-level stand-alone air filtration system to create a space with cleaner air.
Some masks can help. It doesn’t hurt to have a high-quality N95 mask. Just wearing a cloth mask won’t do much, though.
Most states have air quality monitors that can give you a sense of how bad the air quality is, so check those sites and act accordingly.
This article was updated June 7, 2023, with thick wildfire smoke over the U.S. Northeast and the latest map of smoke conditions.
The Research Brief is a short take about interesting academic work.
The big idea
People in the U.S. are dying at higher rates than in other similar high-income countries, and that difference is only growing. That’s the key finding of a new study that I published in the journal PLOS One.
In 2021, more than 892,000 of the 3,456,000 deaths the U.S. experienced, or about 1 in 4, were “excess deaths.” In 2019, that number was 483,000 deaths, or nearly 1 in 6. That represents an 84.9% increase in excess deaths in the U.S. between 2019 and 2021.
Excess deaths refer to the actual number of deaths that occur in a given year compared with expected deaths over that same time period based on prior years or, as in this study, in other countries.
In my study, I compared the number of U.S. deaths with those in the five largest countries in Western Europe: England and Wales, France, Germany, Italy and Spain. Those five countries make for a good comparison because they are nearly, if not quite, as wealthy as the U.S. and their combined population is similar in size and diversity to the U.S. population.
I also chose those countries because they were used in an earlier study from another research team that documented a 34.5% increase in excess deaths in the U.S. between 2000 and 2017.
The acceleration of this already alarming long-term trend in excess deaths in the U.S. was exacerbated by the fact that the U.S. experienced higher death rates from COVID-19 compared with similar countries. However, COVID-19 alone does not account for the recent increase in the number of excess deaths in the U.S. relative to comparison countries.
Why it matters
Rising living standards and medical advances through the 20th century have made it possible for people in wealthy countries to live longer and with a better quality of life. Given that the U.S. is the largest economic power in the world, with cutting-edge medical technology, Americans should have an advantage over other countries in terms of life span and death rates.
But in the last 50 years, many countries around the world have outpaced the U.S. in how fast death rates are declining, as revealed by trends in life expectancy.
Life expectancy is an average age at death, and it represents how long an average person is expected to live if current death rates remain unchanged throughout that person’s lifetime. Life expectancy is based on a complex combination of death rates at different ages, but in short, when death rates decline, life expectancy increases.
Compared to about 20 other high-income countries, since around the mid-1970s the U.S. life expectancy has been slipping from about the middle, or median, to the lowest rungs of life expectancy. So the relative stagnation in life expectancy in the U.S. compared with other countries is directly related to the fact that death rates have also declined more slowly in the U.S.
While these specific causes of deaths should clearly be health policy priorities today, there might be more fundamental causes to the elevated U.S. death rates.
In the early 1990s, young people in the U.S. between the ages of 15 and 34 were already dying at higher rates than their peers in other countries from a combination of homicides, unintentional injuries – in large part from motor vehicle accidents – and deaths from HIV/AIDS.
Research is underway to understand the more fundamental societal causes that may explain the vulnerability of the U.S. population to successive epidemics, from HIV/AIDS and COVID-19 to gun violence and opioid overdoses.
These include racial and economic inequalities, which combined with a weaker social security net and lack of health care access for all may help explain larger health and death disparities compared to European countries.
Gov. Gavin Newsom has proposed a 28th Amendment to the United States Constitution to enshrine fundamental, broadly supported gun safety measures into law.
Newsom’s office said the amendment will leave the Second Amendment unchanged while respecting America’s gun-owning tradition.
“Our ability to make a more perfect union is literally written into the Constitution,” said Newsom.
He said the 28th Amendment he’s proposing “will enshrine in the Constitution common sense gun safety measures that Democrats, Republicans, Independents, and gun owners overwhelmingly support — while leaving the Second Amendment unchanged and respecting America’s gun-owning tradition.”
The 28th Amendment will permanently enshrine four broadly supported gun safety principles into the U.S. Constitution:
• Raising the federal minimum age to purchase a firearm from 18 to 21; • Mandating universal background checks to prevent truly dangerous people from purchasing a gun that could be used in a crime; • Instituting a reasonable waiting period for all gun purchases; and • Barring civilian purchase of assault weapons that serve no other purpose than to kill as many people as possible in a short amount of time - weapons of war our nation’s founders never foresaw.
Additionally, the 28th Amendment will affirm Congress, states, and local governments can enact additional common-sense gun safety regulations that save lives.
Passage of the 28th Amendment will require a convention to propose amendments to the United States Constitution, also known as an Article V Convention or amendatory convention.
Working in partnership with members of the California State Senate and Assembly, California will be the first state in the nation to call for such a convention with a joint resolution being introduced by California State Senator Aisha Wahab and Assemblymember Reggie Jones-Sawyer.
The governor will work with grassroots supporters, elected and civic leaders, and broad and diverse coalitions across the nation to fight for the passage of similar resolutions in other state legislatures to ensure the convening of a constitutional convention limited to this subject.
Thirty-three other states, in addition to California, would need to take action to convene such a convention.
“I am proud to introduce this resolution to protect the common sense gun reform legislation our Assembly Public Safety Committee has championed over the years,” said Assemblymember Reggie Jones-Sawyer. “We cannot stand idly while courts roll back our work and diminish the ability of our Legislature to keep Californians safe. This bold but fair resolution calls on other states to join us in protecting some of the most effective ways of reducing gun violence.”
With gun violence claiming the lives of over 110 Americans a day, California’s nation-leading gun safety laws are showing positive results, according to recent studies.
In its most recent scorecard, California ranked as the No. 1 state for gun safety by the Giffords Law Center, and according to the most recent data, the state saw a 37% lower gun death rate than the national average.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported that California’s gun death rate was the 44th lowest in the nation, with 8.5 gun deaths per 100,000 people — compared to 13.7 deaths per 100,000 nationally, 28.6 in Mississippi, 20.7 in Oklahoma, and 14.2 in Texas.
The expected El Nino has emerged, according to scientists at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service.
Forecasters have issued an El Nino Advisory, noting that El Nino conditions are present and are expected to gradually strengthen into the winter.
El Nino is a natural climate phenomenon marked by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator, which occurs on average every two to seven years. El Nino’s impacts on the climate extend far beyond the Pacific Ocean.
“Depending on its strength, El Nino can cause a range of impacts, such as increasing the risk of heavy rainfall and droughts in certain locations around the world,” said Michelle L'Heureux, climate scientist at the Climate Prediction Center. “Climate change can exacerbate or mitigate certain impacts related to El Nino. For example, El Nino could lead to new records for temperatures, particularly in areas that already experience above-average temperatures during El Nino.”
El Nino’s influence on the U.S. is weak during the summer and more pronounced starting in the late fall through spring.
By winter, there is an 84% chance of greater than a moderate strength El Nino, and a 56% chance of a strong El Nino developing.
Typically, moderate to strong El Nino conditions during the fall and winter result in wetter-than-average conditions from southern California to along the Gulf Coast and drier-than-average conditions in the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley.
El Nino winters also bring better chances for warmer-than-average temperatures across the northern tier of the country.
A single El Nino event will not result in all of these impacts, but El Nino increases the odds of them occurring.
The anticipated persistence of El Nino also contributed to the 2023 Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Hurricane Outlooks issued by NOAA last month.
El Nino conditions usually help to suppress Atlantic Hurricane activity, while the presence of El Nino typically favors strong hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific Basins.
Scientists have been forecasting the development of El Nino for the last few months and issued the first El Nino Watch on April 13.