Federal Reserve officials held interest rates steady at their monthly policy meeting on Sept. 20, 2023 — only the second time they have done so since embarking on a rate-raising campaign a year and a half ago. But it is what they hinted at rather than what they did that caught many economists’ attention: Fed officials indicated that they don’t expect rates to end 2023 higher than they did in June – when they last issued their projections.

Since the hiking cycle began, observers have worried about whether increased rates could push the U.S. economy into a downturn. Some have even speculated that a recession had already begun. However, the economy has been more resilient than many expected, and now many economists are wondering whether the seemingly impossible soft landing – that is, a slowdown that avoids crashing the economy – has become a reality.

As a finance professor, I think it’s premature to start celebrating. Inflation is still almost double the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%, and is expected to come in at around 4% for September. What’s more, the economy is still growing quite fast, with consensus forecasts showing gross domestic product will rise by nearly 3% this quarter. Some early data suggests that could be a low estimate.

What’s next for interest rates?

Fed-watchers are parsing every word from the central bank to determine whether another hike is coming this year or next, or if the cycle is truly over. To understand that decision, it helps to consider the bigger picture.

While the U.S. economy has certainly avoided a downturn for longer than many expected, the inflation battle is a long way from finished. In fact, this wouldn’t be the first time the economy looked like it would avoid a soft landing. For the next several months, the economy is not likely to implode without a major spark.

However, inflation may not continue to fall as quickly in the coming year, which means the Fed may still raise rates more than some expect. If rising oil prices continue to boost transportation costs, other goods could also get more expensive, which may mean higher interest rates for longer.

Is this really the end?

Though Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell seemed to indicate that the committee is approaching the end of the hiking cycle, only 10% of economists expect that it is over at this point – not that economists’ track record of forecasting rates is great either. This is largely because Powell has been clear that the Fed is basing its decisions on economic data, which have been strong so far and hopefully will continue in that direction.

So while everyone is watching the Fed this week, they should also keep an eye on broader economic conditions. With luck, the reported data will continue to be strong enough to avoid a downturn, but not so strong that inflation picks back up.

D. Brian Blank, Assistant Professor of Finance, Mississippi State University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

As questions loom over the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s ability to fund disaster recovery efforts, people whose homes were damaged or destroyed by recent wildfires and storms are trying to make their way through the difficult process of securing financial aid.

Residents in communities hit by Hurricane Idalia, the Maui fires or other recent disasters have a long, tough journey ahead. Early estimates suggest Idalia caused US$12 billion to $20 billion in losses, primarily in property damage, acccording to Moody’s Analytics. And rebuilding Lahaina, Hawaii, has been forecast at over $5.5 billion.

How well the initial disaster response meets residents’ needs has far-reaching consequences for community resilience, especially for vulnerable residents, as we saw after Hurricanes Katrina and Maria.

I am a law professor who focuses on disaster recovery and preparedness and has created several legal clinics to assist survivors. Here’s what anyone facing losses after a federally declared disaster needs to know.

Declaring a disaster

The road to recovery starts with state and federal governments identifying damages – both property damage and economic damage. These assessments will shape the scope of federal assistance and how resources are allocated for each community and survivor. The level of damage will determine whether the president approves a major disaster declaration or simply an emergency declaration.

FEMA created a survey tool, released in May 2023, to make these assessments more consistent. It is now used by officials to collect information about damage to residences, whether owners or renters live there, and the amount of insurance coverage, among other details. That information is then used to determine the extent of the disaster, its impact on infrastructure and the type of aid needed in the request for a federal disaster declaration.

Once the federal government issues an emergency or major disaster declaration, individuals can apply for disaster recovery funding.

Documenting the damage

Step 2 is determining individual damages.

Amid the grief and the rush to find temporary housing and rebuild lives, it can be hard to focus on meticulously documenting what was lost and dealing with insurance. But federal aid has relatively short deadlines – people have 30 days from the formal disaster declaration to apply for disaster unemployment assistance and 60 days for individual and household assistance, such as aid for housing, though that deadline is often extended.

As soon as possible, disaster survivors should take photos of the damage and record every affected area of their property. That includes capturing details of damage to structures, personal belongings, vehicles and any medical equipment. This documentation will help provide the evidence for insurance claims, requests for government assistance and potential tax savings.

The Internal Revenue Service has a helpful guide for reconstructing records after catastrophic disasters that destroy everything. Government agencies can recover lost driving records, mortgage records, wills and vehicle sales records. Most of the costs for these searches can be waived after a disaster.

There are other sources, too. Title companies, property tax assessors and real estate brokers will have many documents related to a home’s value and possibly photos. Insurance policies typically list major assets. Credit card companies may have statements showing major purchases. Mobile phones, friends and social media accounts may have more photos of the property.

Keeping records such as repair invoices, receipts, leases, canceled checks and money orders can also help provide an overview of the losses. FEMA recently amended its policy to also allow affidavits to prove ownership of homes passed down through generations, known as heirship property.

Finding disaster aid

People generally have four options for aid: insurance coverage, FEMA benefits, community or nonprofit funding, and private funding, including loans. Navigating this complex landscape can be hard.

Start with your insurance – homeowners insurance, renters insurance and insurance for vehicles, as well as medical, dental and health. Disaster survivors must apply for their relevant insurance payouts before FEMA will pay benefits. President Joe Biden made an exception to this rule to offer a one-time $700 payment for Maui residents to assist with critical needs, including shelter and transportation.

In cases where insurance coverage is denied or the person doesn’t have insurance, FEMA can become a lifeline.

FEMA’s Individual Assistance program offers benefits that include coverage for temporary lodging, home repair, transportation and medical needs. The agency provides up to $41,000 for housing assistance after emergencies or disaster declarations. FEMA’s disaster relief fund is close to depleted, however, after several multibillion-dollar disasters. Without additional funding from Congress soon, FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell said some recovery funding may be delayed to the next fiscal year, which starts in October.

To cover the costs that go beyond FEMA’s limits, survivors may need to secure private loans or disaster loans, such as Small Business Administration disaster loans, to bridge the gap. Homeowners can apply for SBA loans to replace or repair their primary residence or personal property, including cars, furniture and other items. Additionally, SBA loans can also cover business losses.

For those unwilling or unable to resort to loans, state and local governments often create housing recovery centers using Community Development Block Grants. These grants can help survivors reestablish housing, but the funding also takes much longer to arrive. A CBDG grant in Baton Rouge provided funding for rebuilding housing and to mitigate future flood damage in housing and rental programs after the area flooded in 2016.

Community partnerships are crucial

Amid the complexities of disaster recovery, the importance of community planning and collaboration cannot be overstated.

A coordinated approach that involves local governments, relief organizations and community leaders serves as a catalyst for effective recovery and also makes it easier to identify vulnerable populations and ensure the equitable distribution of resources so no one is left behind.

Communities often set up centers where residents can find and speak to advisers from insurance companies, FEMA and other sources of support. These disaster recovery centers can be the cornerstone for long-term recovery groups that help a community both recover and build resilience.

Five years after Hurricane Maria, community groups were still on the ground in Puerto Rico providing aid and resources to the local community. Ten years after Hurricane Katrina, local housing groups were still providing support to New Orleans residents, especially those employed in the hospitality industry.

In the midst of this formidable journey to recovery, the indomitable spirit of communities banding together, combined with the concerted efforts of government agencies and organizations, can be uplifting. Each step forward represents a collective stride toward healing, renewal and a future marked by greater unity.

This articled was updated Sept. 1, 2023, with early damage estimates.

Latisha Nixon-Jones, Associate Professor of Law, Jacksonville University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.