- Elizabeth Larson
- Posted On
Institute’s forecasts on COVID-19 deaths, resource use show reduced trends
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, an independent global health research organization at the University of Washington School of Medicine, began issuing forecasts of resource use and peak deaths last month, as Lake County News has reported.
The institute said it has been able to fine-tune its forecasts thanks to more data, better models and improved methods.
In one of its initial forecasts last month, the institute estimated that total COVID-19 deaths in California projected through Aug. 4 would reach approximately 4,306, while total deaths overall in the state were expected to reach more than 6,100.
This week, however, the institute’s updated analysis put California’s death total through early August at 1,483, a 65-percent decrease from that original estimate.
As of Monday night, more than 720 COVID-19 deaths were reported in California, based on reports from the 58 county Public Health departments.
The institute this week also adjusted its forecast to predict that California’s COVID-19 deaths would peak on Sunday, April 19, at 52 per day; initially, the peak had been estimated to be double that, at 100 deaths per day, and set to occur on April 25.
California’s peak resource use – referring to hospitals – is forecast for this Friday, April 17, with 2,004 beds, 479 of them in intensive care units, needed, along with 412 ventilators. The institute’s initial projection late last month had been for peak resource use on April 26, when more than 10,000 beds – 1,500 of them in ICUs – and 1,200 ventilators were expected to be needed.
For the nation as a whole, the institute’s updated forecasts said that hospital resource use peaked on April 10. On that day, 56,831 hospital beds – including 15,164 ICU beds – and 13,851 ventilators were used. Additionally, there was a shortage of 3,498 beds and 7,369 ICU beds, based on the data.
The nation’s deaths per day peaked on Monday, April 13, at 2,150 deaths, the institute said.
Overall, the institute forecasts deaths nationwide to total 68,841 through Aug. 4, down from an initial estimate of 81,000, an 18-percent reduction.
The institute has qualified its results by saying that its updated forecasts are dependent upon the continuing implementation of social distancing and related measures.
“Our model assumes social distancing stays in place until the pandemic, in its current phase, reaches the point when deaths are less than 0.3 per million people. Based on our latest projections, we expect social distancing measures to be in place through the end of May,” the institute reported.
Institute officials said they also are working to forecast what would happen if social distancing measures were lifted before the pandemic is under control. That work will be shared once it’s complete.
“Our forecasts of zero deaths in July and August assume that appropriate measures are put in place to guard against the reintroduction of COVID-19 from another state or country. These measures may include mass screening, contact tracing, testing of all individuals entering the country, and quarantine of people who test positive. Details on what these strategies need to be will be analyzed in future editions of the forecasts,” the institute said.
Just how to transition from the current social distancing and shelter in place protocols that Public Health leaders in Lake County are crediting for keeping local numbers low so far is the next big question.
“Decision-making to end preventive measures currently in place is highly complex,” Lake County Public Health Officer Dr. Gary Pace said in a Monday statement.
“Relaxing restrictions too quickly would likely bring on a severe surge, according to experts,” Pace said. “Yet, waiting too long to reintroduce activities will cause even greater financial, educational and social hardship.”
He added, “Before we are able to relax some of the general restrictions, we need to monitor a bit longer, to ensure no overwhelming surge will occur, put more protections in place for the most vulnerable community members, and develop a clear plan, in conjunction with neighboring counties.”
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