LAKE COUNTY, Calif. — California is starting off 2024 with rain but not much snow, which could create issues for water supply as the year progresses.
The first manual measurement of California’s snowpack took place on Tuesday.
It shows a snowpack that’s a fraction of what it was at this time last year, which is raising concern for water supply and fire risk.
As of Saturday night, the California Department of Water Resources’ statewide snow water content report showed that the snowpack is at 33% of normal.
That breaks down as 37% for the Northern Sierra, 33% for the Central Sierra and 25% for the Southern Sierra.
At this time last year, the Northern Sierra was 145% of normal, the Central Sierra was 188% and the Southern Sierra was at 200%, for a statewide average of 188%.
Kaitlyn Trudeau, a senior research associate in climate science for Climate Central, said there are important differences in conditions to remember when comparing the start of 2024 to the beginning of 2023.
Late 2022 and early 2023 were marked by heavy winter storms — driven by a series of atmospheric rivers — that dropped both heavy rain and snow across Lake County and the region.
Trudeau said during that time there were nine major atmospheric rivers which is what resulted in the big snow amounts in the Sierras.
In Lake County, snow hit particularly hard in late February after still more atmospheric rivers hit.
“Last year was really exceptional, and those storms were just packed with moisture,” she said, adding they also were colder.
Those bigger storms also led to massive flooding in some areas.
Another key difference between this year and last, said Trudeau, is that none of California is now in drought, while at the start of 2023, all of the state was in drought.
This year, the reservoir levels also are a lot higher at the start of the water year. As a result, Trudeau said the state has less pressure for water supply on it this year than last.
The Department of Water Resources is reporting that as of Saturday night, nearly all of the state’s reservoirs are above their historic average for this time of year. On the same date for 2023, reservoir levels were far lower.
Due to El Nino conditions, Trudeau said Lake County and the rest of California can expect more warm storms, and heavier downpours, with more rain and less snow.
Not only will that lead to less of a snowpack, but she said it could contribute to earlier snowmelt.
While last year’s storms lasted well into the spring, Trudeau said forecasters aren’t sure about this year. There is no parade of atmospheric rivers on tap.
“We would really like more snow,” she said, adding she’s not giving up hope that more may arrive this season.
“We probably will see more warmer storms. It’s going to make it harder to have snowpack at the same levels,” she said.
Trudeau said it’s important to think about the long-term, and to plan for the potential for multiple stretches of drought conditions.
Unless greenhouse gas emissions are reduced, Trudeau said there will continue to be increasing impacts from climate change.
“We can’t keep using the past to guide us into the future,” Trudeau said.
She has also focused on fire weather for the last several years, looking at trends over the past 50 years.
In the West, there has been a massive increase in weather with hot, dry conditions, and that sets the stage for extreme fire weather. Trudeau said the changes have led to the Southwest having two more months of fire risk.
Trudeaus said it’s really important that Californians and people in the West don’t let their guards down.
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El Nino expected to bring more rain, less snow
- Elizabeth Larson
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