A new report shows that the chances of dying in a crash in a late-model vehicle have fallen by more than a third in three years.
The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety conducted the study. It has published death rates by make and model periodically since 1989, at first for cars only and later for all passenger vehicles.
“This is a huge improvement in just three years, even considering the economy's influence,” said David Zuby, IIHS executive vice president and chief research officer. “We know from our vehicle ratings program that crash test performance has been getting steadily better. These latest death rates provide new confirmation that real-world outcomes are improving, too.”
The report showed that among 2011 models, a record nine vehicles have driver death rates of zero.
Those nine models include the Audi A4 4WD car, Honda Odyssey minivan, Kia Sorento 2WD SUV, Lexus RX 350 4WD SUV, Mercedes-Benz GL-Class 4WD SUV, Subaru Legacy 4WD four-door car, Toyota Highlander hybrid 4WD SUV, Toyota Sequoia 4WD SUV large and the Volvo XC90 4WD SUV.
Two thirds of the top models are SUVs. Today's SUVs have the lowest driver death rate of any vehicle type; that's a sharp contrast to the situation a decade ago, when SUVs had some of the highest rates, due to their propensity to roll over.
Now, that issue has been reduced because of the advent of electronic stability control, leading to the finding that the rollover death rate of five per million registered vehicle years for 2011 models is less than a quarter of what it was for 2004 models.
SUVs are now so far improved in their stability that law enforcement agencies like the California Highway Patrol are adopting them for patrol vehicles. The patrol SUV models are now being deployed in Lake County, as Lake County News has reported.
While there is a higher number of models with zero fatalities, the study also showed that the gap between the safest and riskiest models remains wide, and three cars have death rates exceeding 100 per million registered vehicle years.
Those vehicles are the Kia Rio, the Nissan Versa sedan and the Hyundai Accent, according to the report.
The report attributes the continuing decline in fatality numbers to improved vehicle designs and safety technology.
Institute researchers, in a related study, also estimated how much of the decline was due to changes in the vehicle fleet during the years 1985 to 2012.
They found that vehicle changes – including improved structural designs, the addition of safety features and an evolving mix of vehicle types – were the main source of declining risk from 1993 through 2006.
These changes continued to contribute to later declines as well, though other factors such as the weak economy also appear to have played a role.
There were 7,700 fewer driver deaths in 2012 alone than there would have been had vehicles remained the same since 1985.
The latest death rates by make and model confirm the rapid pace of improvement. Among 2011 models, there were 28 driver deaths per million registered vehicle years through the 2012 calendar year, down from 48 for 2008 models through 2009. A registered vehicle year is one vehicle registered for one year.
Although the numbers reflect 2011 models, data from earlier model-year vehicles as far back as 2008 are included if the vehicles weren't substantially redesigned before 2011. Including older, equivalent vehicles increases the exposure and thus the accuracy of the results.
To be included, a vehicle must have had at least 100,000 registered vehicle years of exposure during 2009-12 or at least 20 deaths.
As they did in the earlier study, the study's authors estimated the effect of vehicle age and calendar year on death rates.
The researchers found that 1985-95 fleets weren't as protective of their drivers as the 1984 fleet, but vehicles steadily improved after that. From 1993 through 2006, vehicle changes were the main source of the decline in driver death risk.
Had vehicles not improved during that time, the longstanding downward trend of driver fatality rates would have ended in 1993.
"In some ways, the '90s weren't a great time for highway safety policy. Speed limits increased, and belt use gains leveled off," says IIHS President Adrian Lund, a co-author of both the 2006 study and the new one. "However, consumers began to think more about the safety of vehicles, thanks at least in part to the increasing availability of crash test ratings from both the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration and the Institute. Manufacturers responded to the ratings by making improvements, and this process has accelerated in recent years, thanks to shorter design cycles."
A review of the vehicles involved in fatal crashes in Lake County in 2014 showed that older model vehicles were involved, from model years 1986 up through 2003.
While the number of lives saved from vehicle improvements is good news, the flip side of the study is the missed opportunities for reducing fatality risk by other means.
Lower speed limits, stronger safety belt laws and wider use of automated enforcement are just a few examples of policies that could have reduced the death toll even further.
Since 2006, improvements in vehicle design have continued to play a big role in declining fatality risk, though the risk would have fallen somewhat even without vehicle changes, the study showed.
A small increase in safety belt use and other improvements in driver behavior may have contributed to this reduced risk by calendar year, but the biggest factor was probably the weak economy.
This means that fatality rates could be expected to rise again when the economy improves unless better traffic safety policies are put in place.
“The complete elimination of traffic deaths is still many decades away, and, along with vehicle improvements, getting there will require changes in road design and public policy that can help protect all road users,” Zuby said. “Still, the rise in the number of vehicles with zero driver deaths shows what's possible.”
Study: Improved vehicle designs bring down crash death rates
- Lake County News reports
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