Forecast: California COVID-19 cases to peak in late April, nationwide pandemic could end by summer if social distancing continues
- Elizabeth Larson
- Posted On
LAKE COUNTY, Calif. – A new nationwide forecast estimates that the COVID-19 pandemic could peak in California in late April and end in the United States in June if strong social distancing measures continue, but that in the meantime most of the country’s states could see their health care systems stretched to the limit.
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, an independent global health research organization at the University of Washington School of Medicine, produced the new forecast.
Calling COVID-19 “an extraordinary challenge to US health and the healthcare system,” the institute – or IHME – estimates that demand for ventilators and beds in US hospital intensive care units will far exceed capacity for COVID-19 patients as early as the second week of April.
The institute’s forecast also anticipates that deaths related to the current wave of COVID-19 in the US are likely to persist into July, even if people continue to protect themselves and their communities by strongly adhering to social distancing measures and by taking other precautions advised by public health officials.
IHME’s analysis, based on observed death rates, estimates that over the next four months in the US, approximately 81,000 people will die from the virus. Estimates range between 38,000 and 162,000 US deaths.
The forecast predicts that 41 states will need more ICU beds than they currently have available and that 11 states may need to increase their ICU beds by 50 percent or more to meet patient needs before the current wave of the pandemic ends, a point which is defined as fewer than 10 deaths per day nationwide. The end of the pandemic could occur toward the end of June.
“Our estimated trajectory of COVID-19 deaths assumes continued and uninterrupted vigilance by the general public, hospital and health workers, and government agencies,” said IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray. “The trajectory of the pandemic will change – and dramatically for the worse – if people ease up on social distancing or relax with other precautions. We encourage everyone to adhere to those precautions to help save lives.”
Nationwide, COVID-19 deaths are forecast to peak at 2,271 per day on April 15. Hospital resource use is expected to peak that same day, with more than 224,000 hospital beds needed, more than 33,000 intensive care unit beds required and more than 26,000 ventilators in use.
In California, where a statewide stay at home order went into effect on March 19, IHME’s forecast estimates that deaths will peak at 100 per day on April 25 and remain there for several days before beginning to decline.
The forecast states that California has a total of 26,654 beds and 1,993 available intensive care beds.
Peak resource use in California will occur on April 26, based on IHME’s forecast, with 10,468 beds needed, and 1,564 ICU beds and 1,252 ventilators required to care for patients. Peak use will persist for several days before dropping off.
Total COVID-19 deaths in California projected through Aug. 4 are estimated to reach approximately 4,306, while total deaths overall are expected to top 6,100, according to IHME’s analysis.
California’s projected number of deaths ranks the state second nationwide, with New York expected to have more than 10,200 deaths overall. Rounding out the projected top five are Texas, 5,847; New Jersey, 4,109; and Michigan, 4,061.
The forecast does not offer an estimate of how many total COVID-19 cases each state could experience, and the analysis does not look at states on a county-by-county level.
As of Sunday night, a tally of reports from public health departments across California conducted by Lake County News put the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in California at approximately 6,345, with deaths numbering 132. The IHME analysis had forecast eight fewer deaths in California on Sunday.
As of the latest information available through the weekend, no positive cases of COVID-19 have so far been confirmed in Lake and nearly a dozen other counties, including Alpine, Del Norte, Lassen, Mariposa, Modoc, Plumas, Sierra, Tehama and Trinity, with Tuolumne reporting a case of a nonresident with the virus being treated in that county, according to those respective counties’ public health departments.
Lake County’s public schools closed on March 16 and Lake County Public Health Officer Dr. Gary Pace issued a countywide shelter in place order that went into effect on March 19, with an additional order days later closing Clear Lake, all county waterways and lodging facilities.
In Lake County, which has a large population of both seniors and veterans, there are a total of 50 hospital beds between Adventist Health Clear Lake Hospital and Sutter Lakeside Hospital, which are both under the “critical access” designation that limits them to 25 beds each.
Dr. Pace said last week that, with state waivers, Sutter Lakeside could increase to 50 beds and Adventist to about 40. Together, the hospitals have 11 ventilators available with access to five more.
Some Bay Area counties are reported to be considering extending their own shelter in place orders.
So far, Dr. Pace has not reported if he plans on extending Lake County’s stay in place order past its initial April 10 end date.
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